Tuesday, October 27, 2009

My 2009 November Outlook.

I'm seeing many signs that suggest we're in the beginnings of a pattern change that's going to head into a good part of November. This is fitting in quite well so far, with my Fall thoughts mentioned in my winter forecast.

I mentioned much of the Fall months would have temps being "near" or "slightly above normal" as a mean, and the NAO and AO couplet would be mainly Neutral to Slightly POS as a 3 month mean. So far that's looking pretty good, as we approach the midpoint point of the Fall season >November.

As we head into November the latest AO/NAO forecasts are heading POS and the PNA is going Neg. These 2 teleconnections continue to synchronize as a couplet and the PNA heads in the opposite direction or Neg. This all spells a western/central US trough with colder/Stormy weather there, but milder and drier in the East due to a SE Ridge. But don't panic because of this pattern change.

I'm forecasting the big switch to happens in Late Dec and early Jan, then runs into much of Feb. This is still where I see the AO/NAO going NEG and the STJ and El Nino effects really start kicking in to our favor ! Reversal of the pattern happens in the heart of winter. My November thoughts:Get ready for a progressive pattern and roller coaster ride with temps, which will lean more on the warm side here in the east for much of November, but yes We'll have some cold shots as well.

Overall the NAO/AO couplet will head Neutral to POS this month and a SE Ridge will continue to develop and try ever so hard to hold it's ground. Much of the colder and stormy weather will be concentrated over the Rockies and Central US. Below normal temps and a couple good snowstorms will occur in the Rockies and Plains. Most storm systems will develop over the Southern Rockies and Plains, then head NE to the Great Lakes and Apps. This will leave much of the East on the warmer side, with transient troughs and frontal passages, that only bring us brief cool/cold shots, for a couple of days, then milder weather quickly follows for a few days.

I can see a couple of storms near the coast forming along these stronger cold fronts, but most storms will cut to our west this month. It appears the best chance for "near" or "slightly below normal" temps will be over Northern New England.

My November 30 day Outlook:
For the Eastern US

For the NE and M/A:
Temps: 0 to +2 (Near to Slightly Above)
Precip: Near normal precip.

For the SE States:
Temps: +1 to +3 (Above)
Precip: Slightly below normal Precip.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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