Wednesday, October 14, 2009

A One/Two Punch ! Periods of Mod/Heavy Rain, Windy & Cold Conditions, Thursday through Sunday ! Some Street & Coastal Flooding Possible.

10/14/09
Wednesday: 7:00 PM Update
Discussion and Forecast:
For the Delaware Valley Region.

A one/two punch is on the way. We'll be dealing with 2 separate coastal storms, that will both intensify and produce Nor'Easter like conditions for a prolonged period. This will cause considerable beach erosion along the NJ and DE shores, as a strong onshore flow develops. East and NE winds of 25 to 40 Mph and some gust to near 50 MPH are likely along the coast, starting on Thursday and will continue into Sunday. The strongest winds will occur Thursday night into Friday, then again Saturday night into Sunday AM.

Further inland from the coast in SE PA, DE, and NJ expect windy conditions as well, but not quite as strong. Overall we can expect NE winds at 15 to 25 MPH winds with gusts to 35 MPH.

Rain will move into the Delaware Valley during Thursday morning and continue rather steady from Thursday afternoon into early Friday AM, some of this rain will be moderate to heavy at times, especially during late Thursday afternoon and continue into much of the night. This will occur as the first coastal storm develops off the M/A coast Thursday, then moves slowly NE and intensifies. Highs on Thursday will only reach the mid to upper 40's.

During Friday and into Saturday, expect periods of light rain and drizzle, cold, raw and windy conditions too continue. Highs both days will be in the Upper 40's to lower 50's. Lows Thursday and Friday night will be in the Upper 30's to low 40's across the region.

A second coastal storm will develop Saturday into Sunday as a baroclinic zone continues in place near the eastern seaboard. A trough and some u/l energy will move through Saturday night and Sunday, which will energize the coastal surface low. This will allow for a steadier and heavier rain along with windy conditions, too move back in during Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday AM. This precip will begin tapering off to just some showers during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday, so the Phils game will probably be played Sunday Night.

Total Rainfall amounts from Thursday through Sunday of 1.00" to 1.75" can be expected over SE PA and PHL. Areas to the south and east in DE and NJ 1.50" to 2.50" will be common. If needed I'll update on Friday.

More Discussion @ Ruggie Weather Forum:
http://ruggieweather.phpbb3now.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=79

Take Care,
Ruggie

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