Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Strong Storm Brings Heavy Rain and High Winds ! First Flakes on Saturday ???

Wednesday AM
12/2/09


A powerful storm system will bring Heavy rain and Strong winds tonight into Thursday morning. Low pressure developing in the Northern GOM, will move NNE to Western PA by Thursday morning. A huge area of rain and some thunderstorms will move out ahead of this storm today, and should begin too effect The Delaware Valley by this evening. As the storm nears later tonight, Heavy rain and strong winds will occur during the overnight and early morning hours on Thursday.

Some area could even see a rare December thunderstorm overnight as winds increase out of the east and SE at 20 to 30 Mph. Some gusts to 40 and 45 Mph are possible. This storm will move out by Thursday afternoon and I expect some clearing, but continued windy for much of the day. Much colder air will then filter in behind a strong cold front associated with this storm. Friday should be mainly sunny and much colder with Highs in the mid to upper 40's.

The next system on the horizon also develops in the northern GOM, but takes a track further east and off the M/A coast during Saturday. This could bring our first flakes of the season during Saturday into Saturday evening. Temps will be marginal and abit too mild during the day (Near 40) so I expect occasional light rain, mixed with wet snow at times. As the storm moves quickly NE and well offshore, some lingering precip could be in the form of mainly snow showers during Saturday evening, as a s/w and upper level energy rotate through and around the mean trough axis. These snow showers could leave a light coating of snow in some areas, across the Delaware Valley. This will mainly be further inland, from Northern DE to interior southern/central NJ and SE PA. I'll have a more detailed call on this on Friday.


So to sum it all up, we can expect 1" to 2" of rain and strong winds starting this evening and continuing into Thursday morning. We begin to clear out Thursday afternoon and turn colder for Thursday night into the weekend. First flakes of the season are looking pretty good for Saturday into Saturday evening, with some areas seeing a light coating of snow Saturday evening. Stay turned as any deviation in the track of this coastal storm, could cause some changes in this forecast for Saturday.

Take Care,
Ruggie

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

have you noticed for about the last 5 or so years its always snowed on or about Dec 5th!? Snow dances Jon!!!! keep them up babe...SJPLOW

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Jenny,
This would be the 4th time this decade that it snowed on Dec 5th
2 of these storms were 5"to 7" storms.

Still some hope for accumulating snow late Sat/Sat night, but IMO not enough to plow. But stay tuned this is a tricky coastal storm and still 3 days away

I'm on it !

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

LOL Well maybe this will be a good one! But of course, we want snow but we are still so busy with the concrete work...this would throw a monkey wrench in on a few of our jobs...LOl i cant win!
SJPLOW

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

INFAMOUS DECEMBER 5TH SNOWFALLS OVER THE PAST DECADE, IN THE YEARS IT SNOWED:

2002, 2003, 2005, & 2007

DEC 5th, 2009 ???????

Correction, this would be the 5th time it snowed on Dec 5 this decade. Very Weird too say the least. It's hard enough to see accumulating snows around here before Christmas.

Ruggie

Bob T. - Palmyra said...

Nice analysis/summarization, Ruggie. I have you bookmarked in my browser, and check back often, even though I may not comment many times. Keep us the good work. Let's hope for snow here in SJ. Hope to see more updates from you in the next few days. Could be a close-call with the weekend storm.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hi Bob
Thanks for the kind feedback !

Yes, the latest trends today continue to indicate the snow event for Saturday is looking better. South Jersey and much of DE would be in the sweet spots.

The latest models are putting out 1"-3" and one is saying 3"-6" possible for Southern NJ and DE.

I'll be quite busy over the next 24-36 hours figuring this one out. I should have a more detailed write-up and call later tomorrow or Friday ! Stay tuned.

Please also check out the new forum.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Bob T. - Palmyra said...

Thanks. Because it's been so long, I'll take even 1"! lol I'm just outside of NE Philly. I'll definitely check out the new forum. have a good one!

Anonymous said...

John, i love those numbers!!!!! your snow dances seem to be working! i guess our jobs are put on hold now!!! lol thats my luck! ok will check back later!!! jenny

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Jenny,
Hold on sister, those #'s are model outputs, not Ruggie's Call.

A big shift west on the 12z NAM today, suggests SJ/DE are flirting with rain/snow line issues. But IMO I'd say 1" to perhaps 3" is not out of the cards for Saturday Evening.

Accumulating snow would fall between 5:00 PM and Midnight on Saturday and end shortly after midnight in SJ.

Don't be hooking up any snow plows girl ! No green light for that on my end. Besides the roads and pavement will be too warm for snow to stick. This would occur on grassy surfaces and cars, not roads.

Ruggie