Thursday, December 3, 2009

First Snow Of The Season For Saturday Night: Some Prelim. Thoughts and Estimates.

12/3/09
Thursday PM

As you know in my last write-up, I mentioned the first flakes of the season could occur this weekend. It now appears a minor snow event is looking pretty good at this point, for later Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. At this time I'm going to give some preliminary thoughts and estimates for snowfall potential, across the region. This call is very tough due to many factors, which I'll get into more detail later on with the final call on Friday.

A storm system will develop over the GOM during Friday as a trough moves into the Central US and heads east. This trough and it's associated s/w <>


My Preliminary snowfall estimates:
For The Delaware Valley Region.

SE PA, including PHL:
Coating to 1"

Central NJ, including TTN:
Coating to 1"

Coastal Southern/Central NJ and Southern DE:
Coating to 1"

Northern/Central DE & Interior Southern NJ:
1" to 2"

Eastern / NE MD:
1" to 3"

I'll do a more solid and final call on Friday. This is a tricky storm to forecast, and with many variables on the table with this event, some adjustments may be needed. But at this points I'm pretty confident this will be a minor snow event, with a general Coating to 2", across the Delaware Valley region.

Take Care,
Ruggie


7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Long island???

How much...

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Pretty warm, rain and mix of wet snow and exit wide right, Maybe a coating if your lucky.

Anonymous said...

the 12z run of the nam had a bigger storm for west of the cities. what are your thoughts about this.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

The NAM is garbage and a huge outlier. I don't see it's solution happening, it's handling H5 energy sloppy and wrong. The 18z run is just as bad and too warm. I'm Going GFS/EURO solution for model guidence on this one. No NAM

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Then if that said.... I am so ready for the next storm!!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

I'm going to beef this storm up ! Final call out this afternoon.

Anonymous said...

LOL Ok now I am very anxious...dont keep me waiting to long JR! sj plow....