Friday, December 4, 2009

My Final Call: First Snow Of The Season On The Way !

*** UPDATED CALL ***
Saturday: 12/5/09
Issued: 8:00 AM
For The Delaware Valley Region.

The first snow of the season will bring accumulating snow for the entire Delaware Valley, from Later Saturday afternoon into Saturday Night. I'm increasing my snowfall amounts across the region ! Many areas further north and west, will do much better than my prelim thoughts from yesterday. Overall this will be a decent early December snow event.

Our coastal storm that I talked about yesterday, will have plenty of juice as it heads up the coast. It now appears this storm track will be closer to the coast, and will be stronger. This will allow for increased precip amounts further west and northward up into parts of New England.

The s/w and H5 energy I talked about, will also be a key mechanism to help enhance precipitation and intensity later Saturday into Saturday night. A mix of snow and rain will develop around noon on Saturday, this will then change to wet snow towards evening, and continue into Saturday night. Most areas will change over to wet snow between 4:00 PM and 7:00 PM. Snow will come down moderate at times during the evening hours, before tapering off after midnight.

Many areas will see a general 1" to 3" of snow across the Delaware Valley before all is said and done. In Central/Southern DE and coastal NJ only a coating to at best 1" can be expected.

Temps will be in the low to mid 30's as the snow falls Saturday Evening, so this will be a wet snow, and the roads will have some slick spots when the moderate snow is falling.

Please see my Final Snowfall map and yes "ENJOY" the great Dec 5th date for snow in PHL. This will be the 5th time this decade that we had measurable snow on Dec 5th for PHL, and nearby areas.

More discussion on this storm can be found on Ruggie Weather Forum.
http://ruggieweather.phpbb3now.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=178

Take Care,
Ruggie


SNOWFALL MAP: (Click on map to enlarge)
UPDATED SNOWFALL MAP:
8:00 AM SATURDAY

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

the nam had this strength on the maps before any other models and yesterday you trashed it, any appologies

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Lol, and the NAM yesterday was toasty warm and too far west with precip.< would have been much more rain than snow for PHL/NYC. It shifted back east some.

The meat of this storm you can thank for the H5 energy I spoke of in my write-up yesterday and today, which I said could be tricky and give much more spark to this storm Saturday night. Much of my upped accumulations are based on that, not the NAM model. But yes the NAM did score a kinda Coupe here, no doubt, but not perfect as you claim. ;-) besides whos says it's right yet ? We'll see what happens after tomorrow night and add it all up.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Anonymous:
Please Go to my Forum to see where I show this s/w and H5 vort energy feature.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

i live north west of baltimore and te nam looked good for my area. i was not trying to put down your forecast at all i think that they are great and i appreciate the work you put into them. i still think it is a 3-6 storm for my area.

Anonymous said...

I live northwest of Baltimore and already have 2 inches. your 1-3 area might be a little low

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Let me know how you make out !
hey I hope you get 3" or 4"
Good luck ! I like busting a little low if that's the case, LOL
Forecasters get excused when they bust low, but when we bust High, OMG the trolls come quickly with the rants and temper flares.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

I ended up with over 6 inches. north and west of bmore. great snowstorm! can't wait till Tuesday night

Anonymous said...

Ruggie... your updated snow map that you made still is not good BC I got NOTHING... NO SNOW AT ALL!!

I am very mad...

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

This storm was good to those just west of I-95. Most seen some snow over DE/SJ but C-near 1" was the rule. It both over performed and under performed. I received .4" in a burst when it finaly turned over at 5:00 PM, but ir only lasted 45 minutes, then just light snow and melted.

Overall I think this call of mine was not very good. It was really a matter of the rain/snow line that just didn't really budge much when the best precip moved through the region, for points east.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

OK... Better luck next time...