Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Accumulating Snow On The Way, Followed by Another Arctic Blast For The Weekend !

Total Snowfall Here in Pittsgrove NJ: 1.8"

NWS Mt.Holly Snowfall Reports:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

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MY FINAL CALL
Very Minor Changes and updated @ 6:00 AM Thursday

1"-3" : For Points N & W of PHL and also The NYC area.
2"-4": For PHL, Southern NJ, and DE.

Thursday: 1/7/2010
Discussion and Forecast:
For: The Delaware Valley & NYC Regions.

After being in the deep freeze since the weekend, We've remained fairly dry with only some flurries and snow showers over the past couple of days. Now I turn my attention to a system I've been following for the past several days.

A strong Arctic front and very cold air is once again heading our way from Friday through the weekend. But first I'll talk about the front running system that will bring us accumulating snow before this front blasts through on Friday. A strong Upper Level (u/l) System will be moving across the Lower Midwest and Ohio Valley during Thursday, and then move over our region Thursday night into Friday.

This u/l energy will be a key lifting mechanism to produce a period of light snow from later Thursday night into Friday morning. This energy will also develop a weak surface low just off the M/A coast at the same time. The combination of these two features will supply enough moisture and u/l energy for an accumulating snow event.

I'm thinking a general .10" to .25" of liquid equivalent will fall during this time, and snowfall ratios will be quite high at 20:1. This is due to very cold temps aloft and at the surface.

With this being said, a general 1"-3" of snow accumulation is likely across much of The Delaware Valley and the NYC areas, But for PHL and points South and East into DE and Southern NJ, 2"-4" amounts are likely. This will be a very powdery and fluffy snow.

So from Near PHL and points South and East into Southern NJ and DE: These areas will likely see the higher snow amounts, (2"-4") as the coastal storm will be just close enough to supply these areas with extra moisture supply. Timing of this event looks like light snow moves in between 10:00 PM and 2:00 AM on Thursday night. Then we can expect about a 6 hour period of steady snow from 3:00 AM to about 10:00 AM on Friday before snow tapers off to flurries and ends by early afternoon.

Behind this system the Arctic front will move through followed by increasing winds and very cold temperatures through the Weekend. Highs will be in the mid 20's to near 30 from Friday through Sunday and lows in the teens and lower 20's. Overall the weekend should be dry and very cold with P.Sunny days and P.Cloudy and very cold nights. Expect winds of 15-25 Mph and higher gusts from Friday into much of Saturday.

Quick Recap:
A general 1" to 3" of snow can be expected for points N & W of PHL and The NYC area, from Late Thursday night into Friday morning.


For PHL, Southern NJ, and much of DE, snow accumulations of 2"-4" can be expected.

Take Care,
Ruggie

8 comments:

Jim McGrath said...

Ruggie,

What amount do you see for the Baltimore, MD area?

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

1 to 3 for Bwi

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

1 to 3 for Bwi

Jim McGrath said...

Thanks for the info....My students are hoping for a snowday on Friday!

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