Some Thoughts on Next Weekends Storm & A Possible Pattern Change Coming ???

1/10/2010
Sunday AM
Discussion

The system for next weekend is looking more and more like a Cold rain or Ice setup, than a snow producer. It all looks good on paper, as High pressure will be positioned to our North and West, and storm moves NE from the GOM ! but here's the problem, the cold air is too shallow and the northern and southern branches really don't phase well.

We could see some snow at the start, but likely changes to Sleet/Freezing Rain/ and a cold rain for some. Still a week away, but the trends are not that good. I'm also not liking the longer range, as a pattern change could be on the way. The Pac Jet begins to take over and northern stream is in Canada. All key teleconnection begin to go in the WRONG DIRECTION, and show signs of changing towards months end.

The AO and NAO are heading towards Neutral signals, and the PNA is heading back down and also near a Neutral signal, heading NEG. In laymans terns, this is not too good for us in the east. We could be seeing a nice warm up, and the SE Ridge is showing up. Many in the M/A states could be seeing 40's and 50's for a good 3-5 day period, and most storms cutting to our west into the Midwest and G/L regions. This looks to happen near or after the 20th of January.

The second half of January could very well be a BIG DUD, and let's hope these possible pattern changes are short lived as we head into February. It seems to me, we can never have a good period during the heart of winter in these parts. It's always Beginning or ending periods that we get winter weather.

Let's hope this is only a typical January thaw for a week or two, and that we resume to our regular scheduled program for February.

Take care,
Ruggie