Thursday, January 28, 2010

Some Snow on the way for South Jersey & Delaware for Saturday ! A Big Hit for much of VA. My Preliminary Thoughts.

Discussion:
Thursday 1/28/10
Time Issued: 5:30 PM

For The M/A States and The Delaware Valley Regions.

Good evening folks ! Wow, what a week it's been with tracking this storm. As I type, it continues to be a very tricky and complex storm to figure out for the Lower Delaware Valley region. Mainly from near PHL and points south & east, into all of DE and Southern NJ, there's a pretty good chance for some accumulating snow, this from Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening.

As we head north & west of PHL, the chances for some light snow greatly diminish, but still possible over extreme SE PA into Central NJ south of Trenton. I'll get into more detail with snowfall amounts, later in this write-up.

A strong PV < (Polar Vortex) now moving across the Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow, will supply the region with very cold temperatures, starting tonight and continuing into much of this weekend. The upper level trough associated with this PV will keep a NW flow of cold, dry weather through Friday night. As this PV and trough slowly moves NE during Saturday, a storm will be approaching from the southwest and south, with our separate STJ < (Sub-tropical Jet).

The big question is how far north will this storm come ??? A more amplified s/w < (Short wave) and trough with this under cutting STJ, will try to pump up some ridging ahead of this storm, as it approaches the M/A States. With the P/V slowly moving out, this could allow for our southern storm to move further north, and looks to be near the NC coast on Saturday. Any shift of 25-50 miles either way would change this forecast for the Delaware Valley, so these are my prelim thoughts for now.

For much of Virginia, Snow and plenty of it, will likely fall during Friday Night into much of Saturday, where many areas will see 6" to 12" for both central and southern Virginia. Across Northern and NE VA a general 2" to 5" can be expected ,with higher amounts of 4"-8" over NE VA.

My Preliminary Snowfall amounts for The Delaware Valley

Light snow should move into DE and Southern NJ during late morning and the early afternoon hours on Saturday, and continue into the early evening. Only a few periods of light snow or flurries are possible during the afternoon across extreme SE PA, PHL, and central NJ south of Trenton.

Some preliminary Snowfall amounts I'm expecting at this time !
My final call/Snowfall Map will be issued on Friday.

Extreme SE PA, PHL and nearby NJ suburbs:
A few periods of light snow and flurries are possible, little or no accumulation, some spots could see a coating of snow, for PHL and the nearby suburbs of NJ.

Northern DE into much of Southern NJ:
Periods of light snow from near midday Saturday, into the early evening hours.
A general coating to 2" can be expected.

Extreme Southern NJ south of Millville, and central DE near Dover:
Light snow from the later Saturday morning into early Saturday evening.
A general 1" to 3" can be expected in these areas.

Southern DE:
Snow can be expected from Saturday morning into the early evening hours. I'm forecasting 3" to 5" with the highest amounts over SE DE.

Take Care,
Ruggie

2 comments:

jcmcgrath1969 said...

Hi Ruggie,

The last 24 hours seem to want to bring this storm further north. Do you see any surprises for the mid-atlantic come Saturday morning? My knowledge is much less than yours, but I have a gut feeling this storm is going to track another 100 or so miles further north. I don't know why...no scientific backing for my thoughts. Thanks in advance for your opinion!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

I think a northward shift of 50 miles is not out of the question. 100 mile shift is less likely but can't be rulled out with a good 48-54 hours away from the event.

I'll finalize and make any needed changes tomorrow evening with my final call.

Ruggie