Thursday, February 18, 2010

Dry and Seasonable Weather through the Weekend ! Some Snow or Mix, but Mainly Rain for Monday into Tuesday AM.

Monday Update:
2/22/10

Light rain will move into the area towards this evening, and continue into Tuesday AM. Some mixed sleet, snow, and freezing rain is possible later tonight, towards the Lehigh Valley region.

Occasional light Rain, Drizzle, and some patchy Fog can be expected for much of Tuesday into Tuesday night. Rain could mix with some sleet and wet snow at times during later Tuesday night. No accumulations !

As we head into Thursday things become tricky with strong u/l energy moving in and a second low developing just offshore. With colder air working in during that time, we could be looking at periods of light snow and some light accumulations. This would most likely occur during a Thursday into Friday timeframe. I'll have more on this threat tomorrow for the chance of some snow later in the week. Until then, some rain and dreary weather is on the way to start out this week.
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Thursday: 2-18-10
7:30 PM Discussion
Some Thoughts on This Weekend & into Early Next Week.

A stretch of dry and more seasonable weather is a good bet through the weekend. We can expect Partly to Mostly Sunny Skies for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, with Highs in the Upper 30's to mid 40's. Fair and Chilly nights with lows in the mid to upper 20's. So some slow melting of all this snow will continue.

Early next week a storm will be moving from the Southern Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley by Monday, then move east to the Northern M/A coast by later Monday night and Tuesday. Many have been asking me how much snow for Monday, as there's been a bunch of talk about this storm and more snow over the past several days.

I've never been that impressed with this setup from the beginning, and now many models are starting to show a milder profile, and unfavorable track for any big snow event in the Delaware Valley region. The cold air ahead of this system will be rather stale, and there's really no High pressure to our north, which would normally supply fresh cold air, and a CAD signature, so that's strike 1.

The track of this system is from the west, and just to our south or overhead, this is not good as the storm will weaken and down slopping will occur east of the mountains, Strike 2 !

The u/l support or amplified trough are not there either, so this is strike 3.

Too sum it up, I expect this to be mainly a rain event for PHL and points SE into much of Southern/Central NJ and DE. Only some snow or mixed precip is possible at the beginning(Monday onset) and end of this storm on (Tuesday AM).

At this time, I expect no more than a Coating to 2" of snow accumulation for a good part of the Delaware Valley. For points further North and west of PHL they could see 2"- 4" in areas out towards RDG and ABE in the Lehigh Valley. For the Pocono's and NW NJ possibly 3"-6" of mainly snow can be expected. I'll update during the weekend if needed, but I think these estimates are pretty sound and a good bet, looking at the overall setup with this system.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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