Tuesday, February 23, 2010

More Snow On The Way For Later Wed Night into Friday AM ! A Possible Significant to Major Snowstorm, For The Del Valley and NYC Areas !

Quick Update:
6:00 AM:
Wednesday 2/24/10

I have no changes to my call: Widespread 8"-14" amounts for a good portion of the Delaware Valley. I'll have a snowfall map and final details sometime today. Winds look to be a bit less but still strong. The snow will become drier in nature Thursday night into Friday morning, so these two factors could prevent widespread damage from higher winds and a wetter snow, but I still expect problems and some power outages later Thursday into Friday.

Take Care,
Ruggie
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Tuesday Evening update:
5:30 PM

This is going to be a very powerful and potentially damaging winter storm for the entire Delaware Valley Region. As I continue to track and study this setup for Later Wednesday night into Friday, I'm going to now say something I usually don't say, or do I hype things up. This storm has the potential to be Disastrous !!!

As of right now most models are suggesting very heavy wet snow in the 8"-16" range, along with powerful winds of 30 to 50 MPH and gusts to near 60 MPH. The ground is completely saturated from snow melt, today's rains, and recent winter storms.

Heavy wet snow on trees and power lines, along with high winds could spell a DISASTER in the making for many, and widespread damage across the entire Delaware Valley. Not only does this storm become a stacked up synoptic BOMB, it's captured by a very strong u/l H5 low, and the system stalls out between NYC and NE PA for a 18-24 hour period.

So, I'm pulling the trigger here and warning people to get ready for a very bad storm, with heavy wet snow, and damaging winds. I'll have more details tomorrow with a snowfall map, and my final call. I can only hope I'm wrong here, and have better news tomorrow, because what I'm seeing here is NO JOKE !

My preliminary estimates for this storm: 8"-14" of total snow accumulations, along with strong winds and possible widespread damage. Some trees and power lines will be coming down later Thursday, Thursday night, and into Friday.

Ruggie
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Tuesday AM: 2/23/10
Discussion: 6:30 AM
The Potential for a Significant/Major Snowstorm on the way !


A Phased/Captured/Energized/and Explosive storm system, along with classic Bombogenesis are in the makings, from the PHL area to NYC, with a possible SECS/MECS, for Later Wednesday Night into early Friday.

This is looking more like a Possible 4"-8"/6"-10" event for PHL/SJ and much of Northern DE, with 8"-14" possible from TTN (Trenton NJ) to NYC areas, with a Northern M/A COASTAL BOMB in the making !

Both the NAM and GFS models are in good agreement, and now showing similar solutions. The EURO and GGEM are also trending in this direction, and showing a 3"-6"/4"-8" event for the PHL and NYC Areas.

These new developments since yesterday evening and this morning are very legit, and this needs to be watched very closely throughout today and tonight. This is a synoptic setup that is tricky, but at the same time one that could hammer this region with heavy snow and blizzard conditions, as the storm rapidly deepens (Bombogenesis) and stalls out near the NJ coast during Later Thursday and Thursday night.

Once again, strong u/l energy with a closed H5 low, which will be going into a NEG tilted position near the M/A coast, will energize and capture a developing coastal storm.
This will be a stacked up system, which phases with the u/l features to produce a strong and explosive storm system. The cold air will be in place and continue to filter in during the storm, so this will be all snow, and turning colder and very windy as the storm evolves.

I'll do a more detailed update tonight or tomorrow morning with this Snow threat.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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