Sunday, February 7, 2010

More Snow on the Way ! Another Possible Big Hit for Wednesday. SECS/MECS potential From The Del. Valley to NYC Areas.

2/7/10 :
Sunday AM
Discussion:

Another potentially big SECS/MECS has it's eyes on the Delaware Valley to NYC for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Many from SE PA into central/Southern NJ and DE, just received 20"-30" of snow on Saturday's HECS blockbuster storm. Here I received 24.0" and my seasonal total is at now 57.5". PHL missed the all time record by 2" coming in with 28.5" and the 2nd largest snowstorm on record.

Now I have to bring the news for another significant to possibly major snow threat, for Later Tuesday night into much of Wednesday, as a Miller B transfer setup is looking very good. So, we have a couple days of dry, but cold weather to dig out, and get ready for this next storm.

The combination of a strong (STJ) sub tropical jet, and strong closed H5 low dropping into the Ohio Valley during Wednesday morning, will help develop and energize a surface low along the M/A coast near the NC/VA coast Tuesday night. This surface low will then strengthen rapidly and move off the NJ coast by Wednesday afternoon, then move NE off the SE New England coast during Wednesday night.



A Strong Closed H5 Low over the Ohio Valley Wed AM at 7:00 AM will quickly energize the developing surface low along the VA coast. See map below




The Surface low moves from the VA coast, to off the NJ coast during Wednesday and quickly strengthens. This will cause mod/heavy snow to develop later Tuesday night into Wednesday for The Delaware Valley, as it moves slowly NE. This spreads into NYC and SE New England during Wednesday into Wednesday AM. See map below.




I'm using the NAM model here as an example, but ALL global models, including the GFS, Canadian GGEM, EURO, and UKMET, are showing a very similar to identical setup towards mid-week. So with very good model agreement and a very favorable pattern in place to support this event, I'm very confident, we'll see accumulating snow and a possible SECS/MECS event on Wednesday. Once again this will be around a 12 hour event, but snow will come down mod to heavy during Wednesday AM into the early afternoon hours, with significant accumulations likely.

Here's my Preliminary estimates for snowfall totals from Tuesday Night into Wednesday night from DCA/BWI to the NYC area. All areas with SECS/MECS levels, in addition strong winds are likely to develop on Wednesday and Wednesday night, as this storm deepens rapidly off the NJ and SE New England coast. Another Nor'Easter potential for Northern M/A coast into SE NE.

DCA to Southern DE, and points south into Northern Va and Eastern MD.
6"-10"


BWI/PHL: Including SE PA, Northern/central DE into Southern/Central NJ:
8"-14"


NYC/LI Areas: Including NE PA, Northern NJ, and SE New England.
6"-12"


I'll have a better idea by Monday night or Tuesday AM with these totals. They could go up or down, but this is my best preliminary estimate at this time. My final call will be out on Tuesday with a snowfall map and any adjustments that might be needed.

Take Care,
Ruggie



1 comment:

jcmcgrath1969 said...

Good Morning Ruggie,

I was reading this morning the 6Z NAM has the low a little south than last night's model run. I feel this will stregthen the chance for significant accumulations in the Mid-Atlantic. Can't wait to hear your thoghts later today. Have a good one!

Jim