Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Blockbuster Winter Storm to Bring Heavy Snow & Near Blizzard Conditions, Friday Night & Saturday !

Updated Snowfall Map: 2/5/2010
12:00 PM



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Date: Thursday, 2/4/2010
Time: 12:00 PM
My Forecast and Discussion

Another blockbuster winter storm will bring heavy snow and strong winds to the Delaware Valley region, for Later Friday afternoon into Saturday. A developing storm system now in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, will begin to move northeast tonight and Friday. This storm will load up with plenty of moisture as it rides along a strong sub tropical jet stream. To the north, our Polar jet and associated Polar vortex, will set the stages for a major to historical winter storm, as these two jet streams come together near the M/A coast. With cold air in place, and high pressure slowly building in from the northwest, a powerful storm will take shape along the M/A coast later Friday night and into Saturday.

Snow will move into the Delaware Valley from southwest to northeast later Friday afternoon and during the early evening hours. This snow will quickly become moderate to heavy at times by midnight. During the overnight hours, this snow will become heavy with 1" to 3" per hour rates possible in heavier periods of snow. Winds will increase out of the northeast at 15 to 30 Mph, so near blizzard conditions will develop later at night and continue into Saturday.

During Saturday morning, snow will fall heavy at times with strong NE winds of 15-30 Mph, and gusts to near 40 Mph. Snow will continue into much of the afternoon before takering off during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures will be in the mid 20's Friday night and remain in the upper 20's during Saturday. Towards the Southern NJ coast and southern DE, temperatures will be in the low 30's, where some sleet could mix in for a brief period early Saturday. Winds of 20-40 Mph can be expected along the DE and Southern NJ coast, with some gusts to near 55 Mph Saturday morning. Some moderate to severe beach erosion is also likely.

This Winter Storm will be very similar to our Historical Dec 19th storm, where areas near PHL and to the south received the heaviest snow accumulations. This is once again, a classic storm track which brings heavy snowfall to the Delaware Valley region.

Snowfall amounts will be at MECS/HECS levels across Eastern MD, Extreme SE PA Including PHL, Southern and Central NJ, into all of DE. I'm forecasting a general 14" to 20" in these areas. Some spots in Eastern MD, DE, and Southern NJ will see some spots exceeding 20"+ amounts.

Further north over the Lehigh Valley into Northern NJ, and into NYC /LI the snowfall amounts will drop off considerably the further north one goes. I still expect significant snowfall amounts of 8"-14" over the Lehigh Valley into parts of Central/Northern NJ.

From NE PA into Parts of Northern NJ, NYC/L.I. expect 3" to 7" of accumulation.


Please see snowfall Map (Click map to enlarge)



Take Care and Enjoy the Storm !
Ruggie

6 comments:

jcmcgrath1969 said...

Thanks Ruggie for including the Baltimore/Washinton region....Do you feel blizzard warnings will be put in place there as well?

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

I think Blizzard warning will be from near PHL and Points east into Southern/Central NJ. South of PHL to the Northern Chesapeake Bay area, and east into DE.

I don't think BWI/DCA will get strong enough winds to meet the criteria, but It'll be a close call, so we'll see what happens there. Good luck and enjoy this HECS #2 of the winter season.

Ruggie

jcmcgrath1969 said...

Hi Ruggie,

For Annapolis, MD, the NWS is predicting an insane amount of snow for us tonight...16 to 22 inches...then another 6 to 10 inches tomorrow. Already 2 inches here....It's "Snowmageddon"!

Jim

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Total snowfall here in pittsgrove NJ
24.0"

jcmcgrath1969 said...

Ruggie,

What are your thoughts on the next storm Tuesday night into Wednesday?

Jim

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Jim, I'm working on a new writeup, should have out soon. Yes another big snow event looks good for Tuesday night into Wednesday from BWI to NYC. You will be on the SW edge for heaviest snowfall, but still a nice hit for BWI area.