Monday, February 1, 2010

Some Accumulating Snow For Tuesday Night: Potential For A Major Winter Storm > Friday Night into The Weekend !

Wednesday: 12:00 PM
Winter Storm Update for the Weekend:

I'm very confident in saying a "Major Winter Storm" (MECS) will effect the entire Delaware Valley, from Friday night into much of Saturday. Once again areas from near PHL and points south into DE and Southern NJ, will see the highest snow amounts with this Storm.

I'll have a full discussion and Final Call with snowfall amounts, during early Thursday evening. As of now my preliminary thoughts are for snowfall totals of: 8"-14". The higher amounts of 12"+ will most likely occur over Extreme SE PA, Northern/Central DE, into Southern and possibly central NJ. Southern NJ and central/Northern DE, look to be more in a 10"-16" zone.

Ruggie
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Monday PM
Date: 2/1/2010
Discussion and Forecast:

Once again I have my eyes on a potentially significant to major winter storm, for later this week into the weekend. This looks to be from Friday night into Saturday night. Once again, this will be a southern storm coming out of the GOM, that has a pretty good chance to come up the coast. The most favored areas for a SECS/MECS will be south of PHL and NYC. Many parts of VA, into DE and Southern NJ, look to be the most favorable spots with this potential weekend storm. There's plenty of time to track and keep an eye on this system, and for a possible northerly shift, which would effect areas NW of PHL and near NYC with the heavier snow amounts.

The latest computer model guidance today, is showing a nice hit for much of the M/A States, with the exception of a couple models, which are showing a more suppressed solution, similar to our previous weekend event. I think this storm will once again come further north, than these couple models are now showing. So I'll have a more complete update and some preliminary thoughts towards mid-week, on this potential winter storm.

But first, we have a minor snow event on the way for Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. This doesn't look to be a big event for the Delaware Valley region, but once again, areas south and east of PHL will have the best chance for some light accumulations. An upper level trough and some s/w < (short wave) energy will be moving through, later Tuesday into Wednesday AM. A weak coastal low will develop just off the Southeast coast, then move near the NC coast, then head east and out to sea on Wednesday.

Some Atlantic moisture will be thrown back into Eastern VA, much of the Delmarva, DE, and Southern NJ, for Later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temperature will be cold enough for all snow over DE and Southern NJ, but some mixed precip and snow, over southeastern VA and the Delmarva coastal Plain.

My Forecast for the Delaware Valley Region.
For Tuesday Night into Early Wednesday AM:

All of SE PA into Central NJ : Including PHL
I'm forecasting most areas here will see a Coating to 2", but the most likely spots to see near 2" will be mainly near and east of PHL, into Central NJ. A few periods of light snow can be expected with only some snow showers and flurries further west, from near LNS to RDG and ABE areas, with a Coating to 1" possible there. lows will be in the mid 20's.

For Delaware & Southern NJ:
I'm forecasting a general 1" to 3" of snowfall. Periods of light snow can be expected from Tuesday evening into early Wednesday AM, temps will be in the mid to upper 20's Tuesday night.

The best chance for the higher amounts of 2"-4" will likely be, south of a line from near Atlantic City, to near Vineland NJ, then to near Dover DE.

So overall: Extreme Southern NJ, & Central/Southern DE, will have the better chance for the 3" and 4" amounts.

Take Care,
Ruggie

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Man I hope the storm for the weekend comes up our way! I hear that Feb will be cold and very stormy???? SJPLOW

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Denise said...

My Honey is always right!!

Anonymous said...

LOL

jcmcgrath1969 said...

Ruggie,

What do you see happening for the Washington/Baltimore area in the way of snow and ice? I live in Annapolis, MD and they are saying the mix line will be very close to where I live. I just wanted to know what your thoughts were. Thanks for your time!

Jim

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hi Jim, there could be some mixing in Annapolis, but 10-16 is a good bet as a prelim call. Final call will be out Thursday evening.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Final call will be out 5 minutes before storm hits, like usual.