Wednesday, August 4, 2010

My Preliminary 2010-2011 Winter Thoughts.

Issued: Wednesday August 4, 2010

In this write-up I'm going to give a rough outline, and some of my preliminary thoughts for this upcoming winter season. Let me start by saying, this winter will be very different than last year, where much of the storminess and chill, was mainly concentrated from the Southern Rockies, the Southern tier, and into the Mid-Atlantic States. As we all know, a blockbuster, record breaking snow season occurred over much of the M/A States, with VA, MD, DE, and NJ really taking it on the chin. The combination of a moderate to strong El Nino, and perfect teleconnections, were the contributing factors for the M/A in receiving the record breaking snowfall, with 4 major winter Storms.

As we head into the fall and winter months, the ENSO signal is expected to continue on it's trek towards a moderate to strong La Nina signal. This is an extreme flip, and opposite of last year's Strong El Nino signal. Overall the 3 primary teleconnections (The NAO, AO, and PNA) during the past 3-4 months, have been constant with no major extremes. The NAO and AO have been running slightly Negative to near Neutral, with the PNA being near Neutral to slightly Positive. I'll be closely watching the teleconnection trends over the next couple months, before I issue my offical winter call in October.


General Pattern for the Continental US

With an expected moderate to strong La Nina, and rather flat teleconnections at the present time, I'm thinking the most active and stormy weather will occur over the Northern Rockies, much of the Plains, Midwest, and G/L's regions. Both the PAC and Polar Jets, will have there way this winter, with the Sub-tropical or Southern branch, being quite weak and non-existent. Most of the snowfalls in the NE and M/A States will come with Clipper type systems, strong cold fronts, and a couple Miller B coastal storms.

The overall pattern for the Eastern U.S., will be quite progressive and fast moving. The coldest weather and best chance for snow events, will most likely occur during the early and later stages of the winter season. During the mid winter time frame, from mid January into mid February, we could experience more wild swings in temperatures, and a drier pattern.


Overall Outlook for the Continental US

With the information at hand thus far, it looks like much of the Northeast and Northern M/A will have a "Near Normal" Winter, with both temperatures and snowfall. The lower M/A and the SE States should have "Above Normal" temps and "Below Normal" snowfall. Overall precipitation for the entire Eastern 1/3 of the country will be Near to Below normal.

The Southwest and Deep South will see Above Normal temps and Below Normal Precip.

The Northern Rockies, Much of the Plains, and into portions of the Midwest and G/L's Regions will have the best shot at "Below Normal Temps" and "Near to Above Normal Snowfall"


For the M/A States:
Some selected Cities (I-95 Cor.)


PHL:
Temps: -1 to +1 or Near Avg
Snowfall: 16"-22" or Near Normal

NYC:
Temps: -1 to +1 or Near Avg
Snowfall: 24"-30" or Near Normal

DCA/BWI:
Temps: 0 to +2 or Near Avg to Slightly Above Avg
Snowfall: 10"-16" or Slightly Below Normal

RIC:
Temps: +1 to +3 or Above Avg
Snowfall: 5"-10" or Below Normal

I'll be looking for more signs, and continue to study the overall trends and conditions during the next 2 months. My Official winter forecast will be issued in early or mid October.

Take Care,
Ruggie

33 comments:

Anonymous said...

what are your thoughts for buffalo ny? temp wise also snowfall

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

For Buffalo NY, I'd say slightly below normal temps, and slightly above avg snowfall.

The LES Machine, does quite well with La Nina patterns, so you have a better chance to be at least near normal, with a good shot at above normal in the snowfall dept.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Even with last winter's grip on the Mid-Atlantic, Norfolk, Va. ended up w/ only 9.3 inches of snow(normal 7.7). Most storms were snow changing to rain. One good coastal storm in the right spot can throw the annual total above normal. In any winter, is it always possible to have that storm regardless of the overall patterns?

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Predicting snowfall for a season can be very tough, because of that very reason you stated. One good storm in any certain area, can change everything. When I do my Official Call in October, I'll specify below, near, or above normal snowfall on a map, but the actual #'s I put down for some selected cities are based on my best estimates with an expected pattern.

But like you've stated, it only takes one good storm in any given pattern, too make the call a possible bust. All I can do is give it my best shot. ;-)

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Ruggie-I'm planning a home construction project and my contractor can't start until Nov 1. I am in the Western MD area. What's the outlook for early winter weather (nov/dec)? Thanks!

Anonymous said...

What about snowfall at Snowbasin, Utah?

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Western MD in LES areas could get off to an early start this winter. Will have a better idea in October when I issue my official call. Most of the M/A and NE could see an early start with colder than average temps and some snow in Dec.

Ruggie

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Snowbasin Utah should be about near normal with snowfall this year. Northern Rockies do the best and above avg snowfall there.

Anonymous said...

what are your thoughts for the tri cities wa?

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Not really all that familar with tri cities in WA, but I think the NW States have colder than normal temps and near normal snowfall for lower elevations and above normal snowfall in the mountains.

gurtej101 said...

i live in toronto ontario canada what about us . i want snow and cold will i be getting that and can you give a snofall predction to in cm.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Toronto will be slightly colder than normal temps and slightly above normal snowfall. I don't do the cm thing, so you can handle that one. LOL

Ruggie

gurtej101 said...

what about inches

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Toronto has avg snowfall of 52" You'll be looking at 60"-70" this winter, if my estimates are correct at this point.

Anonymous said...

I live in Nashua, NH. What are you early predictions for my area. And can you give me early estimates of how much snowfall I'll get in my area?

gurtej101 said...

can you make a snow fall map

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

I'll be making temp, precip, snowfall, and storm track maps with my final call in October.

Remember this is my Preliminary Call, so no need to make maps and more details than needed, at this point.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

I live in Nashua, NH. What are you early predictions for my area. And can you give me early estimates of how much snowfall I'll get in my area?

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Anonymous said...

hi so will there likely be any 1foot storms for the mid atalantic if so how likey THANK YOU

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

The Northern M/A especially the interior sections and Apps will have a shot at a storm or two of 1 foot.

The coastal plain and I-95 in the M/A from RIC to NYC I would say a 8"-12" is possible. Most snow events this winter will be of the 2"-4" and 3"-6" events for much of the M/A States.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

What do you think the snow totals will be for New England? a guess..

Anonymous said...

What would you say the winter for Milwaukee Wisconsin will be like?

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Milwaukee looks like slightly colder than average temps and near to above normal snowfall.

Anonymous said...

what about New england?

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

At this time my thinking for much of New England is as follows:

Much of the region will have near normal temps, with the interior and northern sections possibly slightly below normal -1 or -2.

Near average snowfall along the coast and southern New England. Slightly above normal snowfall for the LES areas and Interior central and northern NE.

Craig said...

hey, was wondering what you think for Omaha, Nebraska! thanks

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Umm Craig,

Quote:
"The Northern Rockies, Much of the Plains, and into portions of the Midwest and G/L's Regions will have the best shot at "Below Normal Temps" and "Near to Above Normal Snowfall"

Anonymous said...

What are your thoughts for Northeastern Pennsylvania? :)

Anonymous said...

hi ruggie i was wondering what do you think the winter will be like for fredericksburg va

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Anonymous > Fredericksburg VA,
I'll have my final call out between Oct 8th-10th. So all the details and maps will be posted at that time.

Thanks, Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Hi ruggie i was wondering what your midterm winter outlook was for fredericksburg va

Anonymous said...

Hi there any thoughts on Fargo, ND?