Saturday, August 28, 2010

Heat Wave # 8 On The Way ! Hurricane Season Is Heating Up, With Some Threat during Labor Day Week, for SE and M/A Coast !

August 28th, 2010
Saturday AM: Discussion


Well folks, I hope you're all enjoying our little cool down over the past couple days. One more day before the heat is turned on, once again. Heat wave # 8 begins tomorrow, and continues into much of next week. The only good news is humidity levels will remain low to moderate with temperatures mainly in the low 90's for Monday through Thursday. Sunday should start the heat wave with highs near 90. Sunny days and clear nights can be expected through much of the week. Tuesday 8/31 ends meteorological Summer, and PHL will end up being the hottest Summer on record. We'll also be near or at 50 days of 90+ by Thursday. The record for this stat is 53 days set in 1991, so we still have September to possibly get a few more days of 90 or better to tie or break that record as well. Ok, enough with the heat, let's move onto Hurricane season and a possible threat for Labor Day week !

After a slow start, Our 2010 hurricane season is becoming quite active in the Atlantic basin. Let's start with hurricane Danielle which was a major hurricane yesterday and has now weakened to a Cat 2 about 400 miles SE of Bermuda. This will pose no threat to us, as she will re-curve and head for the North Atlantic shipping lanes over the next several days.

Tracking Danielle:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201006_5day.html#a_topad


Next we have Tropical Storm Earl following right behind Danielle. This tropical system is much further south and will take a more western track over the next few days. I too think Earl will be a re-curve and fish storm, but will take a track further west likely tracking between the Carolina's and Bermuda later next week. This will cause heavy surf and rip currents along much of the east coast later next week into Labor day weekend. At this time, I think Bermuda will have the better chance of being directly effected by this soon to be hurricane. Many indications are pointing to this tropical system becoming a major hurricane during next week. So this will need to be watched closely, even for the SE coast, especially North Carolina. Looking at the u/l pattern for next week, Earl should stay offshore as a huge ridge of High pressure will be anchored to it's west covering a large portion of the Eastern CONUS. This will help block and steer Earl north then NE and well off the East coast by 300 to 400 miles.


Tracking Earl:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201007.html

Now we move onto my concerns for just after Labor day !
Next in line is 97L, which is now off the African coast. This will soon become Fiona and IMO will pose the first real threat to the SE and M/A coast as the first Hurricane of the season to directly effect the East coast. I disagree with the latest computer models also re-curving Fiona similar to Earl. But there's one model that agrees with my thinking and that's the Euro, which in day 10 has Fiona just SE of NC and cranking on Tuesday 9/7. The u/l pattern begins to change during Labor Day weekend and will setup an avenue for this system to move further west near the SE and M/A coast then turn northward up the coast. Our big upper level ridge will move Northeast during this time and setup from the NE US to the North Atlantic. The NAO looks to be slightly NEG during this time frame as well. The main jet driven by La Nina, retreats further north into SE Canada. With all this being said, Fiona will have an opportunity to effect the SE and M/A coast, with tropical storm or Hurricane conditions, just after Labor Day. So there's my bold call with Fiona effecting the east coast, near or just after Labor day. I'll be updating on Earl and Fiona during the week, stay tuned folks !


Tracking 97L, soon to be Fiona:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201097_model.html#a_topad

More discussion at Ruggie weather Forum:
http://ruggieweather.phpbb3now.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=726


Take Care,
Ruggie

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