Wednesday, September 1, 2010

My Thoughts on Hurricane Earl & Forecast For The Delaware Valley Region.

My Forecast:
For The Delaware Valley Region and Shore points of DE/NJ

Issued: 9/01/10
Wednesday: 7:30 PM

***** Update Thursday Evening at 5:00 PM *****

I've made some very minor changes from my call yesterday. Less impact for the Outer Banks of NC, with only gusts to near hurricane force are possible. Lowered rainfall amounts for NJ and DE, along with slightly less winds near the coast. Earl will track more to the east and well offshore, Earl will also weaken more than expected off the NJ coast. ****

Hurricane Earl continues to maintain Major hurricane strength as a CAT 4 as of 5:00 PM this evening. Maximum sustained winds of 135 MPH, Earl continues to move NW at 17 MPH towards the Outer Banks of NC.

Tracking Earl: For the latest advisories and Hurricane track of Earl.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201007.html

For The Outer Banks of NC:

On Thursday Earl will begin turning more to the north as a CAT 3 Major hurricane, as it approaches the outer banks of NC. Tropical Storm force winds will develop over the Outer banks of NC by Thursday evening, and near Hurricane force winds of 60-75 MPH are likely during Thursday night, as Earl passed within 75-100 miles of Cape Hatteras, NC later Thursday night.


During Friday Earl will begin to weaken as a Cat 2 storm, and begin turning NNE, then NE off the DE and NJ coasts. My best estimate is 200 miles east of Atlantic City NJ by later Friday afternoon.

Along the DE/NJ coast and points 10-15 miles inland, for Later Thursday night into Friday Evening.

Tropical Storm winds will extend 200-225 miles from the center during this time, so The DE and NJ shore points will likely see sustained winds of 20-30 MPH and a few gusts to near 45 MPH during Friday.

Periods of rain and .50" to 1.00" of total rainfall can be expected from Later Thursday night into early Friday evening.

High surf of 8'-12' and dangerous rip current are likely for Thursday night into Saturday AM.

Further inland from Central and Northern DE and Interior parts of NJ:

Clouds roll in during Thursday night, then expect several periods of rain and breezy conditions for Friday. Winds of 15-25 Mph and total rainfall of .25" to .50" can be expected.

Along and points just west of Wilmington DE, Philadelphia PA, and Trenton NJ


During later Thursday night into Friday, expect plenty of clouds and some peaks of sunshine on Friday with only a few scattered showers. Rainfall amounts of less than .10" can be expected. Breezy conditions with winds of 10-20 MPH.

So, this is my best estimate and forecast on Earl, but I'll update tomorrow if needed, as any slight shift in Earl's track of 50-75 miles, either way, could have a big impact on this forecast.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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