Friday, July 22, 2011

Some Preliminary Thoughts: For 2011-2012 Winter Season !

For The M/A (Mid-Atlantic) & NE (Northeast) CONUS. (Continental USA)
Issued: 7/22/2011
By: John Ruggiano (Ruggie Weather)

Hello Folks !

It's time again to start looking into the upcoming winter season. As many of you know, I usually do a preliminary Winter outlook in late July, before issuing my Official Winter call in Early to mid October. In this preliminary Outlook, I'll be focusing more on the M/A and NE parts of the Country, more specifically the Delaware Valley Region. In October, I'll have more details for the rest of the country, along with detailed maps and an official Call for the CONUS.

THE PAST 2 YEARS ! Very Solid Trends.
2009-2010 & 2010-2011 Seasons: Summer and Winter ! For The M/A and NE States.

So, let's start with some solid facts and an overall dominant pattern I've been seeing over the past 2 years, as we are now heading into the 3rd year of this pattern. Both the past 2 Summer and Winter seasons, have produced extremes relative to normal. Very Hot and record breaking heat with the past 2 Summers, and Bigger Storms and much above average snowfall in the past 2 Winter seasons. Interesting to say the least ! Here we are facing another Hot Summer.

Overall temps during winter have been near to slightly below normal over the past 2 years, but once again, much bigger storms (Miller A and Miller B's) producing record breaking snowfall in the 2009-2010 season and continued MECS/HECS during last years 2010-2011 winter season.

Once again, big extremes and a huge flip, within a 1 year period !
2009-2010: Overall a Moderate to Strong El Nino Signal which quickly switched to:
2010-2011 : Overall a Moderate to Strong La Nina Signal.

Steady as it goes with teleconnections and seasonal trends. We've been seeing more of a NEG. NAO/AO couplet, and a near Neutral to POS PNA, during the past 2 winter seasons. This along with the factors I've listed above, have contributed to bigger storms and Colder than normal temps over the northern Tier and much of the East. As we head into this Fall and Winter, I see these very similar trends continuing with our basic teleconnections.

The past 2 hurricane seasons have both produced well below average land falling Tropical Storms or Hurricanes, even though the named storms have been near to slightly above average. I really think this data needs to somehow be considered and factored into the overall forecast. So we wait now, and see what this Hurricane season brings. I'll be watching for the number of land falling storms we see this year, If we once again see below normal activity, this could be another solid trend to consider.

I've been studying and paying more attention to space weather over the past few years, but I in no way claim to be any expect in this area, but learning more about it. Here we focus more on what the Sun and it's activity are doing. There's no doubt in my mind, the Sun and it's activity, effect the weather, here on planet Earth. We have both sunspot and solar flare activity, which effect the weather on Planet Earth.

How about (3) comets this Fall, pretty close to the earth and the Sun: Elenin, Levi, and Honda, Could this effect the sun and weather even more ??? Hard to tell, but something to also watch and consider with space weather.

Volcanic activity has been on the rise considerably over the past few years, and this past year has been no exception. As I write, there's several volcanoes throwing ash into our atmosphere, more than normal. This does play a big part, especially with warming in the stratosphere and upper troposphere, in where the overall global pattern can be altered or affected. I'll get into more detail with that when I release my official call in October.

My Preliminary Call for 2011-2012 Winter Season.

For the M/A and NE: The Overall Pattern and ENSO Forecast.
Overall a colder winter with near to above normal snowfall for much of these 2 regions. The overall teleconnections will once again be favorable, with a Neg NAO and AO to help drive the colder and stormy pattern. These trends continue to be following a similar pattern over the past couple years and I see no changes heading into the Fall and Winter months.

The ENSO: I'm expecting to be near Neutral to a weak La Nina signal. This will also put most of these regions in a favorable position for colder and a more active storm pattern, especially the Northern M/A into New England. A couple Miller A's and several Miller B type storms, look like a pretty good bet right now. When I issue my official call in October, I'll have more details, along with maps, and my call for selected cities in these areas.

For the Delaware Valley Region:
Including SE PA, Central and Southern NJ, and DE.
I'm thinking this winter will be slightly colder than normal, with near to slightly Above Average Precipitation, and Above normal snowfall. I see a better than even chance for 2 to 3 Storms producing 6"-12" with a variable storm track, but overall a more colder and stormy winter over much of the Delaware Valley.

FOR PHL: Including Nearby Areas.

Temps: Below Normal (-1.0 F to -3.0 F)
Precip: Near to slightly above Average
Snowfall: Above Normal (30" to 36")

Additional discussion on this preliminary winter forecast can be found at Horizon Weather Forum. I encourage readers of this blog to sign-up on this forum. It will become more active in the Fall and Winter months.

Main Index page to Horizon Weather Forum.

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