Hurricane Irene (Update #2)
Issued: Wednesday AM: 8-24-2011
By: John Ruggiano
The Atlantic Ridge is getting it's butt kicked with these s/w's and mean trough. No way is any type of trend westward happening from this point on ! Look for continued trends east or stabilization in the current track.
I'm now thinking just about everyone could escape any direct hit from this Hurricane along the Eastern Seaboard. I've been favoring and buzzing about this all over the place that the trends would be east since Sunday. The western outlier tracks from a couple models vs the consensus to the east, has been ignored by the NHC since Sunday, and found myself disagreeing with about all there updates being too far west with Irene's track.
Water Vapor Loop:
One more thing: This Hurricane will likely weaken to a CAT 1, as it approaches the Outer Banks of NC, before curving NE and Out to sea. I'm officially putting a fork in this Hurricane ! Too much dry air and u/l pattern to favor weakening and shear as it approaches the states towards Outer banks of NC. The mean Trough and shortwaves will act more as a kicker than absorbing a partial phase as it approaches the Con US.
If you want to listen to the media hype and NHC, please go right ahead ! I'm calling it now, it's not happening, or will it be a big deal for DE, much of NJ and SE PA, other than some gust winds and squally showers from Saturday night into Sunday AM. The immediate coast of DE and NJ, could see some more significant rain and winds of 35 to 55 mph and higher gusts.
Nothing more than a typical fast moving Nor'easter we experience in the fall and winter months.
I'm pretty confident with this call right now, but if I see any big changes, I'll be sure to update !