Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Update # 3 : Hurricane Irene

7:00 AM Update
Thursday: 8/25/11

I'll be doing update #4 sometime this afternoon or early evening ! Trends are more west towards and along the DE/NJ coastline.

For the DE/NJ Shores > NOT GOOD, Hurricane force winds 65-85 MPH !

For the entire Delaware Valley region, expect TS Force winds of 40 to 70 MPH and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL of 6" to 10".

Widespread Trees and powerlines will come down on Sunday with Flash Flooding ! UGLY FOLKS, This will occur from Saturday night into Sunday morning, with the brunt of the storm occuring between 4 AM and 10 AM on Sunday morning.

Ruggie


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8-24-11
Updated: Wednesday 5:30 PM

I'm continuing to track and monitor Hurricane Irene ! This will be a very tricky and complex storm to forecast as it approaches Hatteras NC then up the eastern Seaboard from the M/A Coast to Eastern New England. Some upper level features will come into play as we approach tomorrow and Friday which could alter Irene's Storm track. A slight shift of 50 to 100 miles will make a huge difference, especially here in the Delaware Valley Region. The DE and NJ Coasts will likely see some heavy rain and Tropical Storm Force winds of 40 to 65 MPH. Further inland towards PHL and points west, only some rain and gusty winds to 40 MPH are the best bet for now. I'll have a more solid call by Friday.

I'm still pretty confident that Irene will stay just far enough off shore of the M/A Coast from getting a direct hit. But I'm more concerned for near Hatteras NC and portions of Southeast and Eastern New England. These areas could take a direct hit from Irene.

Most likely impact for Hatteras NC as a CAT 3 Hurricane and New England as a CAT 1 .

I'll continue to update and have a more solid call later tomorrow or Friday morning. below is tracking information from the NHC (Finally I agree with the track now as of 5:00 PM Update) Also IR/Visible Sat Loop of Irene and the computer models tracks are below.

Ruggie

















































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