Thursday, August 25, 2011

Hurricane Irene Update # 4: My Final Call & Thoughts For The Delaware Valley Region !


























Saturday AM Update
8-27-2011

This is now my official Final Call, in which I have no changes from this post on Thursday Evening. The Roughest part of the storm will occur during the overnight hours into Early Sunday morning. All wind and rainfall predictions stand. Ruggie

Thursday: 8-25-11
Issued: 6:00
PM
For: The Delaware Valley Region
Including: SE PA, NJ, and DE


Discussion:
Hurricane Irene to bring Heavy Rain, Flooding, and Tropical Storm force winds of 40 to 65 MPH to much of the region including PHL and nearby suburbs of SE PA, Interior Southern NJ, and Delaware. Total Rainfall amounts of 6" to 10" are likely from Saturday night into Sunday evening.

Along the entire NJ coast and Coastal SE DE, Tropical Storm and Hurricane force winds of 60 to 85 MPH are likely along the immediate coast and 5 to 10 miles inland. The brunt of Irene's Fury to effect the region from later Saturday night into Sunday afternoon ! During this timeframe is where I expect the heaviest rain and strongest sustained winds to occur, mainly between 6:00 AM and 3:00 PM on Sunday !

Widespread power outages and downed trees can be expected across the entire region, as recent heavy rainfall and additional heavy rainfall from Irene will leave the ground saturated. The Strong winds and a very saturated ground will topple and uproot trees more easily. Flash flooding will also occur near rivers and streams during Sunday and Sunday night, so be aware and pay attention to NWS warnings and the media during this time.


These are my best estimates at this time ! A shift in Irene's track to the east of 50 to 75 miles would be our best senerio and this is an outside chance. I'll continue to monitor this dangerous situation and update as needed into this weekend. I've been preparing for Irene and I'm continuing to do so now. I advise everyone to do the same now, and into Saturday. I would do a more detailed write-up and update, but time is running out and my time is limited right now.

Be safe and prepare now !

Ruggie

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