Wednesday, December 21, 2011

My Christmas Weekend Forecast ! For The Delaware Valley Region !

Issued: Wednesday 12-21-2011
For the Delaware Valley Region.
SE PA, Southern/Central NJ and DE.

A Quick Update: A change with my Christmas Weekend Forecast.
Issued: Friday PM... 12-23-2011


Christmas Day is looking great for the Delaware Valley ! Mostly Sunny and seasonably cold, with high in the low to mid 40's and Lows in the Upper 20's to low 30's. There's only a very slight and outside chance for a few light rain or snowshowers Christmas night into early Monday morning.

---------------------------------------------
A Merry Christmas to all !


Overall, we should remain fairly dry through the 3 day weekend, from Friday through Christmas day. The only 2 chances for some precipitation look to be for early Friday, with some rain during the early morning hours, before clearing out during the afternoon.

The other threat is for some rain and snow showers during Christmas Day and night. This looks to be a minor system at this time. I expect this system to stay weak and to our south, then move northeastward and just offshore. With temperatures being marginal in the low 40's at the surface, some colder air aloft will be working into the region. This colder air aloft will allow for the chance of some snow mixing in at times with these showers, especially to the NW of PHL in Eastern PA. The best chance for the entire Delaware Valley to see any snow showers, will be Sunday morning and then again during the Evening hours.

Now if this system should come further north and phase better with the polar jet, than we could see periods of rain on Christmas day, changing to snow showers later in the day and at night. The weather for Christmas day itself is the most uncertain at this time, if I see some changes in the next 24 to 48 hours, I'll be sure to update. For now this is what I'm thinking and my forecast for the Delaware Valley Region.

Thursday Night/Friday
Some rain is likely from Thursday night into early Friday morning, but by afternoon we start clearing out and turn chilly with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Friday night Fair and cold with lows in the low to mid 30's.

Saturday/Saturday Night (Christmas Eve)
Looks to be dry and chilly with Partly Sunny skies and highs in the mid 40's.
Saturday night: P.Cloudy and cold with lows in the Upper 20's to mid 30's across the region.

Sunday (Christmas Day)
Considerable Cloudiness with some peaks of sunshine and a chilly day, with a chance for some rain and snow showers, but not a washout or a white Christmas by any means. Most of the day will be dry. The best chance for any Showers of rain and wet snow, will occur later in the day and at night. Highs in the low 40's and lows near 30.

Monday:
P.Sunny and blustery with highs in the low to mid 40's and it should be quite breezy.

My next 2 updates will include my January Outlook, and some updated thoughts on the Winter Season of 2011-2012. I'll have both of these updates before Jan 1st.

Take Care, be safe, and Have a Merry Christmas !
Ruggie

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

c,mon already! Just let it snow! I'm so tired of it being warm and then cold and then warm and then cold again. I wish the cold weather would just stay here like last winter.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Sorry, I just call it like I see it, and I understand your frustration. But the fact of the matter is this, We've been very spoiled the past 2 winters seasons especially both Decembers ! We're gonna have to wait and be patient this year, looks to be a second half, late winter for much of the M/A and NE. Even that's not a lock, gotta see the AO and NAO head Negative or we are cooked, Sorry !

Ruggie