Wednesday, September 26, 2012

I'll be working on my winter forecast soon. I'm not making my call until early to mid November !

I'll be working on my winter forecast soon.

This year I've decided to wait until early to mid November before issuing my call. IMO, Sep or Oct are just too early to make a solid call, especially when things are variable and uncertain.

A perfect example: All the folks who issued calls already are rolling the dice, many who are going real cold and snowy could be in trouble. At this time a moderate El Nino is very unlikely and teleconnections and trends are still not showing any prolonged NEG NAO or NEG AO couplet. ENSO is now pointing to a very weak El Nino to neutral signal. Only if we see good teleconnections going into late Fall and Winter, can I see the M/A and NE seeing some exceptional Winter with colder and snowier conditions.

The lack of El Nino takes away the STJ/Split flow, and often the M/A States and even the NE count on this with more Miller A and Miller B type storms, especially Miller A's. Then the other question or factor is even with a STJ, if the teleconnections aren't there, then we get more overrunning events, that could be more Ice and slop, than snow. Only New England would likely have the best chance for better overrunning snow events, if we see and Neutral or POS NAO.



Andrew Skaggs said...

I've been following your Winter forecast for the last 3-4 years. You have usually been pretty accurate. I'm not holding my breath but I have hopes your forecast calls for some snows this year in middle TN!


Hi Andrew
At this point I do see hope and good signs for bouts of snow and cold in the Tenn Valley region. I'll have my call out between Nov 8-15 timeframe.

Take Care and thanks !