Sunday, November 18, 2012

Seasonably Chilly for much of the Week ! Cold Shot for Next Weekend is Transient. Real Cold Threat Waits until 1st Week Of December !

Good morning folks !

With Thanksgiving coming up this week, I figured it's time for an update.

Overall we should remain dry for the entire upcoming week, with seasonably chilly temps. High temps will mainly be in the mid to upper 50's during the day, and in the 30's and lower 40's at night. Both Thanksgiving day and Friday, will be the mildest of days this week, with Highs in the Upper 50's to near 60, which is slightly above normal.

As we head into next weekend, a shortwave trough and cold front will move through our region Friday night into Saturday bringing colder temps for Saturday through Monday. This will be a transient shot of colder air, but nothing extreme, and little if any precip with the front and trough moving through. Highs will be in the mid 40's to low 50's and night time lows in the mid 20's to lower 30's.

Looking further down the road for the last week of November, we should rebound back to near and even slightly above normal temps during much of the final week of November. With signs of a blocking pattern returning, and NEG NAO/AO also showing up in the mid and long range models, all attention will be focused on our first true Arctic outbreak of very cold air building up in Canada. Many signs are indicating this air mass will plunge Southeastward into the Central CONUS and then head east to our region, most likely near or just after Nov 29th, and then continue into the first week of December.

So, this is where I'm seeing the best chance for our first shot of some very cold air, and even the chance for some flurries and snow showers. If everything set's up correctly, a coastal storm is possible during the first week of December and with cold to very cold air in place, this could result in some snow and or mixed precip across the M/A and into the NE.

For now, this is something to watch and follow in the coming days, but I'm still cautious being 2-3 weeks out and only saying this is POSSIBLE but not LIKELY until we get close to this time frame.

I'll update in the coming days with this potential threat heading into the first week of December.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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