Sunday, November 25, 2012

Cold Weather Contiunes Into Much Of Next Week ! Some Rain and Mixed Precip For Tuesday From Weak System Crossing Our Region !

Sunday: 11:30 AM
11-25-2012

Good morning Folks !

I've been somewhat quiet with this system for this Tuesday, because I never seen it being much of a threat to our area with any snow. The models have been all over the place with this system and trying to sort out two pieces of u/l energy (shortwaves) and possibly phasing, or partially phasing them near the M/A coast.

I'm forecasting these 2 pieces of energy to remain separate and weak. The northern s/w will help with some overrunning and an area of precip that will move from the Lower OH valley into the Northern M/A region from later Monday night into Tuesday. The 2nd and more southern piece of energy, with a weak wave of low pressure, will remain well to our south and exit off the NC coast Tuesday night. This will then slowly develop well of the M/A coast and move NE and out to sea. We should see no effects from this southern system as it will be kicked offshore by the northern s/w moving across the Northern M/A States. These 2 pieces of energy, with then partially phase, well off the New England coast, during Wednesday and develop into a stronger storm system, but once again, too far offshore, and this will not affect our region.

The surface temperatures with this event will be too warm to support accumulating snow for the coastal Plain from DCA to PHL and NYC and points south and east towards the coast. In these areas (The Coastal Plain) this will be a 6-10 hour period of mainly rain, that could start as a brief period of snow and sleet early Tuesday morning, before quickly changing to some rain and ending during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be in the 36-42 degree range during this event from PHL, and points South and east into SJ and DE. Very little or no accumulation can be expected. Precip should start early Tuesday morning and end by late in the day. Once again, mainly rain with a brief mix possible at the onset Tuesday morning.

For SE PA and the NW Suburbs of PHL, some light accumulations of a C-1" are possible as the precip starts as snow early Tuesday morning, before mixing with and changing to some rain before ending later in the day. Temps will range from 33 to 38 in these areas during this event.

For The Lehigh Valley, The Pocono's and NW NJ mountains, 1"-3" of snow accumulation is possible for Tuesday, mainly as snow and mixed precip in these areas.

I'll update if needed tomorrow, but this is my call for now, and has been my general thinking on this system for the past couple of days.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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