Friday, December 6, 2013

My Call For: Winter Storm Event Sunday/Sunday Night.

My Call For: Winter Storm Event Sunday/Sunday Night
For: LYH/ROA/CHO and other parts of VA
Issued: Friday 6:00 PM

This is a complex and tricky Winter Weather event that I've been tracking and following for days ! Many of you have been following my thoughts on this event and now it's time to put my call out.

We all know many have been talking ICE STORM and even MAJOR to SEVERE in some cases, but I'm not on this page for a major or severe ice storm here in the LYH/ROA VA areas. My thinking is near 1/4" of ice which is moderate to significant. This will cause some power outages and tree damage here and there, but not widespread. This Freezing rain will occur, mainly from later Sunday into early Sunday night. Temps will range between 30-32 F during the ZR over ROA and LYH VA. The periods of rain and Drizzle and temps rising to mid 30's near and just after midnight.

Before the ZR, We'll see a prolonged period of mainly Sleet mixed with snow from around 7:00 AM Sunday morning through mid afternoon between 2:00 and 4:00 PM before the change over to Freezing rain and Freezing Drizzle. A Coating to near 2" of Sleet and Snow accumulation can be expected before the change over occurs. This will hold down the threat for major icing, as Sleet and snow do not stick to powerlines and trees as freezing rain does.

In addition, temps will range between 30-32 F and ice has a tougher time to accumulate vs, say 25-28 F. So this is another saving grace along with a 6-10 hour period of  more Sleet than freezing rain.

For points near and along the Blue Ridge from just North of ROA to Lexington/Staunton/Winchester (West Central & NW VA) a more significant Ice event is likely with near .50" of ice accumulation possible. With heavier QPF's and colder temps of 25-29, these areas will see more problems.

More widespread power outages and tree damage are likely in these areas. Snow and Sleet will accumulate 1"-3" during Sunday, before the change over to Freezing rain mainly from later Sunday into much of Sunday night. Areas in NW VA may no change to rain until early Monday morning.

For areas East of LYH to CHO and towards RIC VA only light to moderate icing can be expected of .10" to just under .25" closer to Rt 29.  Some Sleet is likely during Sunday morning before changing to zr and then to Rain by early evening.

I'll try to provide a map tomorrow morning based on this call.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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