Friday, October 19, 2007

Showers and Thunderstorms This evening, then a Pleasant weekend, continued Above Normal Temps into next week.

Showers and Thunderstorms will cross the area this evening, as a cold front pushed through later tonight. I expect this initial line to move through between 8:00 PM and Midnight. Some scattered showers are likely before and after the main line tonight. High pressure builds in for the weekend, bringing pleasant conditions. We then return to warmer weather for Monday and Tuesday. Highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's for Monday and mid 70's for Tuesday.

Tonight:
M.Cloudy with Showers and Thunderstorms, mainly during the Evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Some gust winds with any thunderstorms. Lows in the Upper 50's

Saturday:
P.Sunny and Windy, Somewhat cooler and less humid. Highs in the lower 70's. West winds 15 to 25 MPH and Gusty

Saturday Night:
Fair and cool, Lows in the Upper 40's to low 50's

Sunday:
Sunny and Milder, highs in the mid 70's

Monday:
P.Sunny and warm. Highs in the Upper 70's to lower 80's

Some reasons for this warm Pattern, from one of my my posts on Eastern US weather board: I've been honking no pattern change this month since early October. So far my thoughts and reasoning are on target.

I laid it out there and even showed and explained recently about the PAC JET and it's behavior in a long range jet stream loop. Might want to take a looksy at that, and tell me where I'm not making sense of my thoughts and reasoning. It's behaving and acting like I outlines weeks ago, because of some factors such as a Strong GOA H5 low and trough that won't relax or go away. It holds the northern branch at bay, tightens the gradient and blasts it eastward into Southern Canada.

If that low would move further south and or retrograde SW it would probably have lessoning effect here in the east and help things teleconnect better. Also would bring the mainstrean further south and allow the Northern Branch to have more opportunity to move in the states and bring us real cold air, not upper level cold air and a transient trough, such as been the case with these couple of undercutting H5 lows moving from the Plains to the Lakes. The SE ridge is also a big factor and quite strong !

The GOA Trough and Low do relax and are replaced by some ridging, but It's brief and doesn't last, sorta like what I'm expecting for our cool shot next week. It just doesn't appear it'll last and will be no more than a few days of Near Avg temps.

Take Care,
Ruggie

2 comments:

Dee said...

Yes, but how much rain for Philly? ;)

Man, you guys on Eastern are willing to throw anyone and everyone under the bus! Beau and I were having a civilized convo last night about land development, and this Marine swooped in telling me that I was OT.



Oy!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Dee,
I'd say 1.00" to 2.00" Today through Saturday, some areas could recieve more than 2.00" especially west of PHL.

Most of Those Guys at eastern have lost their minds ! I've about had it with posting there anymore. It's nothing but a big CLIQUE !

I'll be updating my blog tonight or tomorrow.

Take Care,
Ruggie