Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Accumulating Snow/Sleet & Ice, Likely Friday into Saturday AM. My Call for The Del.Valley & M/A.

My Call: For The Delaware Valley and M/A Regions.
For: 2/22 - 2/23 Snow and Ice event.
Issued: Wednesday Evening 6:00 PM

Discussion:

As we celebrate George Washington's Birthday on Friday, it looks like He's worth more than a Dollar Bill, with this event. As many of you know, I've been talking about an Accumulating snow event for much of the Central and Northern M/A States for later this week. I have no big changes to my first general discussion, as this is a classic overrunning event, with front end snow moving into the Delaware Valley, for Later Thursday night and Friday morning.
My initial estimates were for a general 3" to 6" of snow across the Delaware Valley Region.

Now for my Final Call on this storm. This is what I'm going with, for Total Snow and Sleet Accumulations, from Later Thursday night through Saturday.

3" to 6" for areas North and West of PHL. This from RDG/ABE to just north of TTN and much of Northern Most NJ.

I'm going to trim this back in the southern zones to: 2" to 4" in PHL, Extreme SE PA/ Much of Southern NJ and Northern DE. This extends to northern MD and near the BWI area. NYC expect about the same amounts with 2" to 4".

From Extreme Southern NJ to Central/Southern DE and into the DCA areas: 2" or Less of Snow and sleet can be expected.

I'm very concerned with precip mixing with and changing to Sleet and Freezing rain, by later in the morning on Friday in these southern zones. But further north, this occurs during the late afternoon hours. This quicker change over, will hold back on snow and Sleet accumulations, especially near the PHL area, and Nearby SJ and DE.

WAA (Warm Air Advection) has not been a very good friend to snow lovers in the NYC, PHL, and the DCA areas this winter season, as most of the previous storms have cut to our west or North. The sad part is this storm system(weak) will pass to our south and slide to the VA Coast. We still can't keep it all snow, thanks POS NAO ! The NAO being Neutral to POS the entire winter season has also contributed to the "Well below average" snowfall for the respected areas. I do think NYC and Northern NJ, will do better this time around, as I'm forecasting a general 3"-6" snowfall for them.

So, Let's talk more about this setup. This is all about the interaction of cold arctic air, and an upper Level Split Flow pattern, that'll produce an overrunning situation to begin in the Southern Plains and Southern States, tomorrow and furthern east tomorrow Night. A strong flow due to both streams (P/J and STJ) coming together, from the Lower midwest and Tenn Valley, east to the M/A Coast, will allow this precip to stream eastward Thursday night and Friday.

With cold air in Place and High Pressure overhead and to our NW, this will allow this precip to be Snow initially, From the lower Ohio Valley, eastward to parts of the Central M/A, and all the Northern M/A States. A weak area of low Pressure will develop over the Mississippi Valley and move ENE to the VA coast by Friday Evening. It appears a second weaker wave of low pressure will follow behind the main storm, and prolong the precip over the Northern M/A States for Friday night into Early Saturday. This precip will likely be a mixed bag for the Del Valley to NYC and could change back to a period of light snow before ending Saturday morning. Some light snow and sleet accumulations are possible with the second wave.

Enjoy and Take Care,

Ruggie

TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW & SLEET

MAP FOR: 2/22 through 2/23

Click on map to enlarge.

12 comments:

Ty Ty said...

how much is long island going to get??? the updated map???

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

No changes to my map or Call

Lomg Island 2" to 4" with a few spots near 5"

Ruggie

Ty Ty said...

o.k. thanks, do you think mout sinai will get the five inches???

it is up in the north shore.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

You have the best shot at say 3" to perhaps 5" on the north shore

Good Luck there

Ruggie

Ty Ty said...

thanks man, sorry for bugging you.

Dee said...

"On-The-Road" obs coming to you tomorrow as I drive down to Oaklyn from Fords.

Should be fun!

Ty Ty said...

yes it should be lol

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Guys 2.4" Here

Latest Reports as of 8:25 AM from NWS Mt Holly NJ

Nice job Gorster !
I'm 2.4" now in Pittsgrove, thanks for including.

Latest from NWS Mt.Holly


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
825 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS
SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT


DELAWARE

...NEW CASTLE COUNTY...
BEAR 1.0 700 AM 2/22
WILMINGTON AIRPORT 1.0 700 AM 2/22

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
GREENWOOD T 800 AM 2/22

MARYLAND

...CECIL COUNTY...
CONOWINGO 2.0 815 AM 2/22

NEW JERSEY

...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
ESTELL MANOR 2.7 815 AM 2/22 CHANGED TO SLEET
HAMMONTON 1.8 700 AM 2/22
LINWOOD 1.5 800 AM 2/22 CHANGED TO SLEET
EGG HARBOR CITY 1.3 650 AM 2/22
ATLANTIC CITY AIRPORT 1.1 700 AM 2/22
PLEASANTVILLE 1.1 700 AM 2/22

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
FLORENCE 4.5 820 AM 2/22
CROSSWICKS 3.5 700 AM 2/22
MOUNT LAUREL 3.1 745 AM 2/22
BORDENTOWN 3.0 745 AM 2/22
LUMBERTON 3.0 715 AM 2/22
NEW HANOVER 3.0 745 AM 2/22
SOUTHAMPTON 3.0 720 AM 2/22
WRIGHTSTOWN 2.7 700 AM 2/22
MOUNT HOLLY NWS 2.5 700 AM 2/22
TABERNACLE 2.5 745 AM 2/22

...CAMDEN COUNTY...
SOMERDALE 3.3 735 AM 2/22
HADDON TOWNSHIP 3.0 745 AM 2/22
ATCO 2.3 745 AM 2/22
PENNSAUKEN 2.0 700 AM 2/22
SICKLERVILLE 1.5 625 AM 2/22

...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
NATIONAL PARK 2.0 700 AM 2/22
WILLIAMSTOWN 1.4 650 AM 2/22

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
WHITEHOUSE 3.8 610 AM 2/22
RIEGELSVILLE 2.8 700 AM 2/22

...MERCER COUNTY...
EWING 3.2 720 AM 2/22
HAMILTON 2.8 635 AM 2/22

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
EDISON 4.2 705 AM 2/22
CARTERET 3.4 540 AM 2/22
NEW BRUNSWICK 2.8 515 AM 2/22

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
COLTS NECK 3.2 740 AM 2/22
MANASQUAN 2.4 700 AM 2/22

...MORRIS COUNTY...
MARCELLA 4.2 800 AM 2/22
OAK RIDGE 4.0 715 AM 2/22
POTTERSVILLE 4.0 800 AM 2/22
MORRIS PLAINS 3.7 645 AM 2/22
BUTLER 3.3 540 AM 2/22

...OCEAN COUNTY...
BEACHWOOD 2.2 735 AM 2/22
TOMS RIVER 1.3 625 AM 2/22

...SALEM COUNTY...
PITTSGROVE 2.0 730 AM 2/22

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
BRANCHBURG 4.0 725 AM 2/22
HILLSBOROUGH 4.0 720 AM 2/22
SOMERSET 4.0 745 AM 2/22

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
HOPATCONG HEIGHTS 3.0 550 AM 2/22
WANTAGE 3.0 625 AM 2/22
SUSSEX 2.8 500 AM 2/22

...WARREN COUNTY...
ALLAMUCHY 4.3 745 AM 2/22
HACKETTSTOWN 3.5 715 AM 2/22
BELVIDERE BRIDGE 2.0 700 AM 2/22

PENNSYLVANIA

...BERKS COUNTY...
BECHTELSVILLE 4.0 815 AM 2/22
READING 3.2 530 AM 2/22
MORGANTOWN 1.8 700 AM 2/22

...BUCKS COUNTY...
PERKASIE 4.0 700 AM 2/22
QUAKERTOWN 3.1 635 AM 2/22
DOYLESTOWN 2.9 800 AM 2/22
NEWTOWN 2.8 700 AM 2/22
SPRINGTOWN 2.6 700 AM 2/22
WARRINGTON 2.5 620 AM 2/22
WARMINSTER 2.3 530 AM 2/22
NESHAMINY FALLS 2.0 640 AM 2/22
WASHINGTON CROSSING 2.0 730 AM 2/22

...CHESTER COUNTY...
EAST NANTMEAL 2.3 715 AM 2/22
DOWNINGTOWN 2.0 600 AM 2/22
GLENMOORE 2.0 800 AM 2/22
HONEY BROOK 2.0 740 AM 2/22

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
DREXEL HILL 3.0 715 AM 2/22
VILLANOVA 1.2 525 AM 2/22

...LEHIGH COUNTY...
ALLENTOWN AIRPORT 2.9 700 AM 2/22

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
AMBLER 3.0 700 AM 2/22
ROYERSFORD 2.5 700 AM 2/22

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
MARTINS CREEK 2.7 600 AM 2/22

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
RAWNHURST 4.0 745 AM 2/22
NE PHILADELPHIA 3.3 715 AM 2/22
CENTER CITY 3.0 800 AM 2/22
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT 2.0 700 AM 2/22

$$

GORSE/MEOLA

Ty Ty said...

6 inches here on long island mount sinai.

Ty Ty said...

hey ruggie, do you see any other big snowstorms/winterstorms???

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Yes, The first half of March has potential. The Pattern is looking better for another possible descent Snow event. When and how much, it's way to early to say.

Ruggie

Dee said...

@ ty ty...

It wasn't so bad, really. Once I was south of Hightstown (195), the roads were fine, and most of the precip was rain.

There were lots of bloody idiots who refuse to clean off the tops of their SUV's, or even turn on their headlights.