Monday, February 11, 2008

S & E of PHL: Mixed Precip Tuesday Afternoon to Rain. N & W of PHL Snow to Ice then Rain.

6:00 AM Update:
Tuesday AM 2/12/08

No Big changes to my call. Some Occ. Light snow or flurries could move in earlier than noon in the western Suburbs, But I still expect the steadiest of the snow and sleet to move in during the early afternoon hours.

Places like PHL/Northern DE, and Interior Sections of Southern/Central NJ, could recieve a Coating to 1" of snow and Sleet before turning to Freezing rain and rain early this evening. No Changes to My Call for the N & W Suburbs and the Lehigh Valley's.

A general 1" to 2" N & W Suburbs, then Ice problems tonight.

The Lehigh Valley: 1" to 3" of snow and sleet in RDG and ABE with moderate Icing tonight, could cause power outages and 1/4" to near 1/2" of Ice Accumulation.

Be Careful out there, especially in Eastern PA.

Well here we go again ! Another sloppy mess and big miss for the Delaware Valley. The Pattern this winter, continues to struggle in producing snow, as systems continue to cut to our west and bring milder air aloft, and cold air masses retreat in time for the next storm. It's hard to believe that the coldest night and coldest day of this winter season, will be followed by a sloppy to rain, and no accumulation South and East of PHL, just 24 hour later. As a Forecaster and big snow lover, I've about had it with this teasing/Near miss, senerio that seems to be caught in what I call the Delaware Valley VORTEX !

A Moderate/Strong La Nina Pattern, and lack of a NEG NAO are the deciding factors. We've had a very active storm pattern over the past 4 to 6 weeks, along with good shots of cold air. The two just can't seem too get together and produce a snowstorm, thanks to a Neutral to POS NAO signal. Until we can get a NEG NAO anything that is mustered up with long range models showing any chances for snow here in the M/A is nothing more than a Mirage.

If for some reason we get a 4" Plus storm, It would be a fluke in this pattern. Will it change ? Good question, I keep telling myself something here has to give, and Mother Nature has to balance something out, before this Winter is Done. It's a shame we are exiting our Primetime Zone for the heart of winter, so if we do get that fluke storm, It'll be there on the ground one day, and gone the next. Our coldest period is about to end, and the sun angle is getting stronger with each day. We're headed for Spring and that's a fact. So to sum it all up, we have 2 to perhaps 4 weeks left to get the BIG ONE !

My Forecast:
For the Delaware Valley: SE PA, Southern/Central NJ and DE.

Fair early then increasing cloudiness and continued very cold. Lows in the Mid to Upper teens.

S & E of PHL: Cloudy with snow, sleet, and Freezing rain, developing during the afternoon. A Coating to 1" of snow and Sleet. Highs in the lower 30's

N & W of PHL: Cloudy with Mainly snow and sleet developing in the afternoon. A coating to 1" possibly by evening. Highs in the Upper 20's to Lower 30's

Tuesday Night:
All precip changing to rain S & E of PHL during the early evening, then periods of rain into the overnight. Lows in the low to mid 30's early, then rising to near 40 late at night.
N & W of PHL: Snow, Sleet and Freezing rain continuing with moderate Ice Accumulations possible in the Lehigh Valley. Total Accumulations of snow and Sleet 1" to 3" in RDG and ABE, perhaps 1"-2" in the NW Suburbs of PHL. All precip changing to rain later and towards morning. Lows in thw Upper 20's to mid 30's.

M.Cloudy with periods of rain early, then showers and flurries later in the day. Highs in the Mid 30's N & W, to the mid 40's S & E of PHL.

Wednesday Night:
M.Cloudy breezy and colder with some flurries/Showers in the evening. Flurries and snow showers overnight. Lows in the mid 20's

P.Sunny and Breezy with highs 40 to 45.

1 comment:

Dee said...

If it's any consulation for the lack of winter in our area...pitchers and catchers report on Thursday!

Go Phils!