Tuesday, April 1, 2008

GRADING OF MY 2007-2008 WINTER FORECAST: All numbers are now in the books.

My original call with discussion and Maps :
http://ruggieweather.blogspot.com/2007/10/my-official-2007-2008-winter-forecast.html


Here's the final grading for Philadelphia, PA for DJFM on my 2007-2008 winter forecast. All month to month breakdowns and grading are in the call below with verifications.

I was within 0.3 degrees of my target number over the 4 month period. Snowfall I had 12" to 18" which is below normal snowfall, but lower than anticipated at 6.3" for the season in PHL.

I usually grade 70% for temperatures and 30% towards the snowfall prediction. With all the totals now in, I've graded the overall call : A-/B+

I'll do the final grading for the national Maps and other regions in the next week or so. I think this will also come up with good numbers. Probably in the B range for the national Call.

Take Care, Ruggie

MY Forecast for PHL.
Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar.

Temps: +2.2
Verification: + 1.9
Final Grade: A+/A

Mean Temp Range: +1.0 to +3.0
Verification: + 1.9
Final Grade: A+/A

Total Snowfall: 12" to 18" (Below Normal)
Verification: 6.3"
Final Grade: B-/C+

70% of my grade is for the Temperature forecast, and 30% of grading is calculated for Total Snowfall.My

Overall Grade for Winter forecast 2007-2008 for Philadelphia, PA
Final Grade: A- / B+

The Monthly Breakdown:

December:

Temps: +1.0 to +2.0 (Slightly Above Avg)
Verification: +0.2
Grade: B

Snowfall: 2" to 3"
Verification: 1.6"
Grade: A-/B+

***Overall Grade for the month of December**: B+

January:

Temps: +2.0 to +3.0 (Above Avg)
Verification: +3.6
Grade: A-/B+

Snowfall: 6" to 8"
Verification: 1.0"
Grade: C-/D+

***Overall Grade for the month of January**: B- / C+

February:

Temps: +1.0 to +2.0 (Slightly Above Avg)
Verification: +2.1
Grade: A-/B+

Snowfall: 3" to 5"
Verification: 3.7"
Grade: A+

*** Overall Grade for the month of February**: A

March:

Temps: +1.0 to +2.0 (Slightly Above Avg)
Verification: +1.6 Grade: A+

Snowfall: 1" to 2"
Verification: (2) Trace Grade: C

*** Overall Grade for the month of March**: A- / B+


2 comments:

Dee said...

Good goddess!

Has there been any Philly met who hasn't busted a weekend forecast since the middle of March, LOL!

And, yesterday on NPR, I heard that the NHC has "reconfigured" all of their models to make a more, umm, "accurate forecast"?

I'm beginning to think that all I need to do is stick my index finger in the air, and I'd make a better forecast.

Just be sure you make the right call for you wedding!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

It's pretty sad Dee !
This last weekend event I said No way are we getting 2" to 4" of RAIN as the models were advertising ! I just kept my mouth shut and laughed on this past weekend event. When patterns change the models have big proplems in most cases. These past couple weeks have been no exception to the rule. The NAO has gone NEG and The Upper Level pattern has changed VS the entire winter season. A cool and wet first half of April is likely. The winter forecast did well this year overall. So I'm happy with that !
No rain for the wedding ! LOL

Ruggie