Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Merry Christmas ! Wet and Mild for Christmas Eve. Nice Christmas Day, More Wet Unsettled weather for the Weekend.

Discussion and My Christmas Forecast:

Merry Christmas and thanks for reading my blog, and using this site. I have bad news for those looking for a White Christmas. After our windy and bitterly cold conditions, yesterday and Today, we quickly warm up, starting tonight into Christmas Eve. The large High Pressure system, that supplied our Arctic Shot, is now moving off the M/A Coast. The return flow on the backside of this High, will cause winds to shift to a southerly direction tonight. This will bring some milder air into our region later tonight into Christmas Eve.

At the same time a storm system will cut through the Midwest on Christmas Eve. Precipitation from this storm and associated cold front will work it's way into the Delaware Valley, Late tonight and into Christmas Eve Night. Periods of rain and milder conditions will be the result. A brief period of freezing rain is possible late tonight in our far northern and western suburbs of PHL, and also into the Lehigh Valley. So be careful for slick spot if traveling later tonight in these areas. Lows tonight will be in the Upper 20's to low 30's early, then rise slowly later. Highs on Wednesday will be in the Upper 40's to low 50's.

The cold front will sweep through Later Wednesday Night as cooler (Seasonable) and drier air follow for Christmas Day. Skies will become Partly Sunny with Highs in the mid 40's and breezy conditions. Christmas Night, Fair and Cold with lows in the mid to upper 20's.

High pressure follows so this dry weather will last into much of Friday, with Highs in the Upper 40's. Cloudiness will begin to increase during the afternoon hours during Friday, as another storm system approaches from the Midwest. Some Showers will move back in for Friday night and Saturday. This weekend system will not only be showery, but also expect very mild temperatures.

Temperatures will approach the mid to Upper 50's on Saturday and remain very mild on Sunday with Highs in the low to mid 50's. A few showers can be expected for Saturday night and Sunday, but I don't expect a washout this weekend.

This Mild weather will be short lived as we drop back to Highs in the low 40's, and lows in the 20's Monday and Tuesday of early next week. Fair weather can be expected both days.

Some Mid-Range thoughts into the New Year 2009:
January 1st thru 15th.

Long range models, and Teleconnection signals, are pointing too a Pattern Change for the first and second weeks of January. Both the GFS and EURO are showing a Strong Negative NAO developing, along with a Large block over Greenland. This is exactly what we need in the M/A States for snow chances, and persistent cold. This will shift the trough axis further East into the Central and Eastern US. Not the Western and Central States, as We've seen over the past 7 to 10 days. So good news for Snow lovers and those who enjoy the winter season.

As we all know just to our North, a couple of snow and Ice storms occurred over the past week. Northern NJ, Much of Eastern PA, NYC Metro, and into much of New England, have received above normal snowfall for the month, due to these storms. The rest of the M/A States, south of PHL (Including) just missed out on this action, so close but we just have to be patient and wait our turn ! Trust me guy's it coming ! I have no changes to my winter outlook for overall temps and snowfall predictions.

The first week of January we continue an active and stormy pattern for much of the Eastern US. I look for the jet stream and the overall pattern to gradually change. More persistent cold and a trough in the East will return, and snow chances for the Mid-Atlantic States will increase during this first week.

I'm more confident that the second week of January is where the pattern change and Neg NAO signal become more established. It's between the 5th and 15th of January where I'm thinking we see our first real shot at a snowstorm in the M/A States and Delaware Valley regions. Stay turned as I'll have better details, and more updates on these changes as we draw closer to the New Year.

Merry Christmas and have a safe and fun Holiday !
Ruggie

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

OH PLEASE RUGGIE, SAY THAT SOUTH JESEY IS GETTING SNOW...YOU GAVE ME HOPE TODAY! I'LL GET OUT THIS WEEK AND DO A SNOW DANCE!!!THANX FOR THE UPDATE AND I WILL KEEP CHECKING...YOU ROCK SJ PLOW (AGAIN)

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

UR Welcome and Merry Christmas.

We had a couple of very close calls this past week, as NYC and just north of PHL did quite well.

Climatology always makes it tough for big snowstorms in December for SJ. The SST's are usually too warm and the effects of the Ocean hurt our chances even more. This new Pattern I see coming, along with more favorible climatology, and Ocean temps dropping into the Upper 30's will really increase our chances for snow towards the New year.

Hang in there man, It's just a matter of a little bit longer, and we are on the way for some good snow this winter season.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

HI RUGGIE, I NEEDED THE GOOD NEWS! BY THE WAY I AM A FEMALE WHO OWNS MY OWN CONCRETE COMPANY WHO ALSO PLOWS! LOL...JUST WANTED TO LET YA KNOW. HOPE YOU HAVE AGREAT CHRISTMAS. KEEP US POSTED I CHECK YOUR WEBSITE EVERYDAY! THANX -SJ PLOW

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Cool, What part of SJ do you live ? County.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

HEY RUGGIE, I LIVE IN CAMDEN COUNTY, IF I CAN GET A PRIVATE EMAIL FOR YA I WILL SEND YOU OUR WEBSITE. OR AN EMAIL THAT I CAN PUT IT IN, WE DO DECORATIVE AND ALL SORTS OF STUFF. LOOK FORWARD IN TALKING TO YA. SJ PLOW