Wednesday, January 28, 2009

A Big Storm Threat for Early Next Week !

*** Friday Afternoon Update ***

I'll have a full update tonight or Saturday ! To sum it up, a huge shift will all models to the east and up the coast or just offshore. This spells a "POTENTIAL" big snowstorm (SECS/MECS) for the M/A and I-95 corridor Cities.

Most models are much colder as the eastward shift and favorable storm track would allow colder air to press in, along with an all snow event. This all begins later Monday Afternoon into Tuesday for The Delaware Valley. I'll have more details and some preliminary thoughts with my write-up tonight or Saturday.

Ruggie
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**** Thursday PM: Update with 12z model runs. ****

The Euro has shifted east, and joins the GFS, GGEM, UKMET. All models with the 12z runs have very similar tracks. Tuesday 7:00 AM in NE VA, then in NE PA and bombing out at 7:00 PM Tuesday Evening. Rain changing to snow on Tuesday with this track.

All models are showing backlash snow, from DCA to PHL, to NYC. Rain changes to snow Tuesday and continues into Tuesday Evening. Possibly 2" to 4" of snow accumulation and strong winds of 25 to 45 MPH. Temps nose dive into the upper teens Tuesday night.
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Well let me start be saying this will be a fun storm to track and follow over the next 3 to 5 days. Many areas from the Deep South to the Northeast will be affected in many ways. Wording such as Blizzard conditions, Flooding, and High Winds, will likely be used Monday through Wednesday of next week in these areas.

Global Models such as the GFS, UKMET, EURO, and GGEM, are all showing this explosive, intense, and slow moving storm system. The exact track is the key to what certain areas: From flooding rains, or a big wind whipped snowstorm. As we progress over the next few days, the synoptic setup and track of this system will become more clear. As of today it looks like this storm develops in the Northern Gulf and then heads to the SE States later Monday. As this storm begins to take shape, a strong phasing setup is in the beginning stages, as a sharp amplified trough with the Northern Branch drops out of the Midwest and heads to the Eastern US.



Monday 2/2/09 @ 1:00 PM (See H5 Map below) 500 mb
Notice how the trough is quite amplified and deep. From the Upper Midwest to the Gulf States. This is what develops the surface low near the central Gulf Coast.




Now as we get into Tuesday this trough becomes more amplified and negatively tilted as it approaches the east coast. This energy and Neg Tilt. will strengthen the surface low as it heads into the SE States, then comes north or Northeast from there.

See H5 Map Below: click map to enlarge
Notice the Neg Tilt and increased upper level energy over the SE and M/A States. The surface low is starting to really strengthen, and colder air is drilling southward on the west side of this trough and west of the storm's track. This is where heavy snow and strong winds will setup.







At this time most models are showing the trough position, and track of this system, about 200 to 300 too far west, to give the Delaware Valley a big snowstorm. But rain changing to snow on the backside is showing up, as the storm deepens and Slowly moves from western VA to PA, then to NY State.

This is where the track of the storm is key and how this trough sets up. It basically needs to be pushed east a couple hundred miles, then we are game for a possible big snow event. These are things I'll be watching over the next few day. On Friday or Saturday, I'll try to get a better handle on how I think this storm pans out. But for now, I wanted to show the setup and big potential for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Plenty of energy, a deep neg. tilted trough, and strong surface low. will produce a slow moving storm, with plenty of WIND and STORMY conditions for many in the M/A and Northeast, as this storm cranks.

Stay Tuned !
Ruggie


9 comments:

Demeter said...

Yeah, you gotta admit, even if we are on the rain side of this bomb, and if it bombs like the models are showing, it will still be fun to watch unfold!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hi Christine,
The dynamics will be incredible with this storm. A wrapped wind machine and possible Blizzard conditions in the Tenn/Ohio Valley's.

As I mentioned a shift to the east must happen for us, or we get mainly a wind swept rain, with possible backlash snow. It's way too early to make a call, but an exciting storm to track and follow over the next several days.

More this weekend as the setup becomes more clear.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

HI RUGGIE, LOOKS LIKE THE STORM IS ALLREADY TRACKING TO FAR INLAND. I AM GOING TO TAKE A WILD STABB BUT I THINK THAT WE ARE GONNA GET RAIN! I KNOW IT CAN CHANGE BUT AFTER THIS WINTER PATTERN, WE ARE GONNA GET JIPPED AGAIN. LIKE I SAID NJ STINKS!! MAYBE IF YOU WORK THAT MAJIC, THE TRACK WILL CHANGE!!LOLOL JENNY

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Jenny as of now it looks like rain Monday night into Tuesday AM.

Rain changes to snow Tuesday PM with possible backlash accumulations. The storm track has trended more east over the past 12 to 24 hours, so it's a good trend.

Like I said for a MECS with this storm, a 200 mile shift east must occur for mainly snow here. I'm on it !

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

LOL,, I HAVE TO SAY WITH OUR LUCK, EVERY ONE WILL HYPE THIS STORM TO BE RAIN THEN WE WILL GET ALL SNOW. QUITE REVERSE FROM WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING. ALWAYS HYPING SNOW THEN WE GET RAIN. I JUST THINK IT FUNNY! WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS, ITS STILL FAR OUT SO I WILL CHECK BACK! I HAVE TO GET OUT AND DO THE SNOW DANCES NOW...LOLOLOL JENNY

Demeter said...

Guess what we just got in the 00Z models..there's our shift :) Now the trick is keeping it there!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

00z and 06Z continue to shift east.
Now along and just offshore on GFS runs. We are now talking rain or wet snow changing to snow for the Delaware Valley. Nice trnding, we need another 100 miles east and We're in a SECS, MECS.

Ruggie

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

00Z EURO (The King of models this winter, especially tis range) has also made a big shift east to just offshore. Much colder and showing mainly snow for us, Wow what great news for snow lovers. Let's hope this will lock in or even trend further east.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

RUGGIE, LETS HOPE IT STAYS THERE! LOTS OF SNOW WOULD BE GREAT! KEEP WORKING THAT MAJIC RUGGIE...LOL JENNY