Saturday, January 31, 2009

A Coastal Storm Threat For Monday Night into Tuesday ! A Big Shift East With The Storm Track Over The Past 48 Hours.

Sunday PM Update:

Where do I start ? It's a big mess and a tough storm to call. Much of the problem is with the trough and upper level energy. It appears some indications are that this is a 2 part system, both parts are minor events for the Delaware Valley. The other solution is one bigger storm and a coastal brush Monday night into Tuesday. The 00z runs tonight will give a much better indication of how this U/L energy is placed.

So for now I'm still thinking a general 2" to 4", and possible 3" to 6" amounts in NJ, with no changes from yesterday's prelim. thoughts. The only difference is we could see these totals from 2 separate systems. The first comes later Monday night into Tuesday AM with an offshore coastal brush, then a second shot for late Tuesday night into Wednesday with the stronger H5 feature, moving just to our south across VA to the Delmarva coast.

Unless we get a phase, and one main storm off the east coast, this will not be a major snowstorm. The 00z and 06z previous runs from the GFS and NAM were showing a huge hit and bigger storm. Today's 12z and 18z NAM runs have backed off this solution, as did the 12z GFS run.

So it looks like the EURO will possibly win again, with 2 features, one offshore and a brush, then the U/L energy and storm just to our south Wed AM. This is exactly what the 18z NAM is now showing. Not really that great guys, but the second system with the U/L H5 energy going to our south has the best chance IMO. Now go watch the Superbowl, relax and take a break !

Ruggie
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Saturday AM: 1/31/2009
Discussion and Preliminary Storm thoughts For:
The Delaware Valley Region:
Monday PM & Tuesday Snow Event

Here we go again with a wild swing in the storm track, for our storm Monday Night into Tuesday. Just 2 days ago this was looking like an Apps runner and huge Snowstorm/Blizzard for the Ohio Valley Region, and a big rainstorm east of the mountains. Now we have a 500 mile shift to the east over the past 48 hours, which is now placing a weaker less explosive coastal storm, that's tracking about 200 to 350 miles off the M/A Coast on Tuesday.

So looking at the latest models and information, we now have a much colder solution and a chance of some snow for the Northern M/A, from Near DCA and points Northeast into New England. The consensus of the latest computer models, would give the Delaware Valley some snow Monday Night into Tuesday. The extremes now range from a major snowstorm per the GFS to a coastal brush and minor snow event with the EURO, UKMET, and GGEM models. The NAM is in the middle road at this point.

So with that being said, the question is what do I think as a Forecaster ???

I'm writing this up on Saturday AM to pass the latest information along to my readers. As a Forecaster it's not a good idea to get too specific until tomorrow (Sunday PM) This is when I think enough information can be digested to make a more solid call for Monday Night into Tuesday. At this point my preliminary first guess and thoughts for the Delaware Valley is that we do see some snow, and the best spots for this accumulating snow will be in areas near and east of PHL (New Jersey) and into NYC and parts of New England.

Eastern MD and DE are also in a pretty good position for some accumulating snow. The overall track and strength of this coastal storm, along with it's forward speed, will determine the snowfall amounts.

So here's what I'm thinking:

For The entire Delaware Valley (SE PA, Southern/Central NJ, and DE:
A general 2" to 4" event for Monday Night into Tuesday, with possible higher amounts of 3" to 6" over NJ, and towards the coast.
Once again, these are my preliminary thoughts and could change Sunday PM, when I make a more solid call on this storm. Check back later this weekend !

Take Care,
Ruggie

3 comments:

Demeter said...

OK, Ruggie, am I actually seeing this? WE actually have a great chance of some significant snow :)

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Christine,
The 00Z & 06Z Runs of the GFS and NAM (American Models) are going ape wall with 12" to 18" of snow for the Delaware Valley. SE PA into NJ being the sweet spots. Then we have the Foreign models saying much less, but have trended in the right direction with the 00Z runs last night.

Today is huge with the 12z Runs and tonights 00z runs. With the U/L pattern I'm favoring "the Big Hit" and will do a new post and more solid call later today or this evening.

Ruggie

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

The big hit and sloppy American models had us all going with eye candy last night.

I'm sticking with my prelim call of 2" to 4" for now and possibly 2 separate systems. This could be the final solution: King Euro/NAM tag team, once again within 48-60 hours.

Ruggie