Monday, February 2, 2009

My Final Call: Some Snow On The Way Late Tonight into Tuesday Night.

Quick Monday Afternoon Update:
The latest 12z Runs are coming in with .40" to .50" of QPF amounts. This would suggest the 2" to 4" amounts could be more like 3" to 6" amounts. The Jersey shore area/Eastern NJ would do the best with possible 4" to 7" amounts.

For now I'll keep my call the way it is, but could update these amounts when I get more information and figure out if this call needs to be bumped up and revised with slightly higher snowfall amounts. Other than that everything looks good IMO ! Once again, a possible update coming this evening on this call.

Updated Snowfall Map at 5:00 PM
My Final Call

The only area I changed was Coastal Southern and Central NJ: These areas could see 4" to 7" No changes to my call and the rest of the map.

Click on map to enlarge:

My Call:
Monday AM: 2/2/09
For The Delaware Valley Region & Northern Mid-Atlantic

A minor/moderate snow event will move into the region later tonight and continue into Tuesday Night. I'm going with a general 2" to 4" over Extreme SE PA, Northern DE, and Interior Southern and Central NJ. The higher amounts in this 2" to 4" range will fall from PHL and points east into NJ. These areas could see 3" and 4" amounts. Closer to the coastal and Eastern sections of Southern & Central NJ, I'm going with 4" to 7" amounts.

Periods of light snow will move in late tonight and continue into Tuesday morning. A more steady light to moderate snow, will fall Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday Evening. This snow will taper off to snow showers and flurries, later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The Coastal storm will remain far enough off shore to prevent a major snowstorm. Much of the snow that falls will be associated will upper level H5 energy with the trough during the PM hours on Tuesday. Some additional moisture will be induced as an inverted trough/Norlun trough type setup, moves through and mainly affects areas in NJ and the NYC region.

This will cause extra lift in the atmosphere and tap some additional moisture from the coastal storm. So this is why the highest amounts will fall over NJ and points northeast of PHL.

Northern M/A Region:

I'm forecating 1"to 3" in these areas.

Much of Northern NJ into NYC and L.I.
I'm forecasting 2" to 4" and 3" to 6" amounts.

Snowfall Map (Click on map to enlarge)

Take Care,

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