Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Tracking The Winter Storm Tuesday/Tuesday Night: Some Observations and Updates.

9:30 PM
Mod/Hvy Snow continues, What a nice banding setup in SW NJ and near PHL this Evening.

So Far: 4.3"

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Tuesday PM Update: 7:30 PM
Moderate to heavy snow falling here now, with a general light to moderate snow since 3:00 PM. I've picked up 2.1" from late this afternoon until now, and earlier today .5"

My total so far is 2.6". The steady moderate Snow should begin tapering off from SW to NE between 8:00 and 10:00 PM this evening. Then snow showers overnight with an additional Coating to 1" possible. Some Flurries for the morning hours. Not bad.

Ruggie
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Tuesday PM Update: 4:00 PM

Light to moderate snow will fall through much of this evening, and taper to snow showers overnight. The upper level energy I talked about earlier is now stretching from NW PA southeast ward into Southcentral PA. This will move SE and then swing east into our continued backbuilding coastal storm. This will cause some banding as this energy moves in this evening, in which moderate to possibly heavy snow (in some spots) will occur at times.


I expect this heaviest band to setup across SE PA, Northern DE and into much of NJ this evening. An additional 1" to 3" will fall tonight, with some areas near 4" in the heavier bands. Roads will become icy and snow covered after 5:00 PM, as temps drop into the 20's. Some lingering flurries can be expected mainly over DE and NJ tomorrow AM.

http://www.accuweather.com/radar-large.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=0&site=PA_&type=SIR&anim=1&level=state&large=1



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Tuesday AM:

Nice look to our Local and Regional Radars: Tracking Systems #1 and #2. Click on the links for the latest Radar Loops.

Dover, DE Radar (DOV)
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Nexrad/BaseReflectivity.aspx?location=USDE0012&animate=true&enlarge=true

Mt.Holly Radar (FT.DIX)
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Nexrad/BaseReflectivity.aspx?location=USNJ0562&animate=true&enlarge=true

M/A Regional Radar:
http://www.accuweather.com/radar-large.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&site=VA_&type=SIR&anim=1&level=state&large=1

NE & M/A Radar:
http://www.wx.rutgers.edu/radimg/anim_nerc.gif

Great enhancement and backbuilding going on This morning in SJ and DE. I have .3" with light snow, so far. It looks like some moderate snow will be moving in within the next hour or so.

A Deformation Band is setting up. This is part one with the Coastal Storm and Front. This should last into the late morning hours, then a break for a few hours, or periods of light snow. I only expect a Coating to 1" over much of DE and SJ. This mainly due to temps between 32 and 35 Degrees' and a warm ground from the mild low to mid 50's yesterday and Sunday.

Then part two comes this afternoon and evening with the U/L energy, which is looking impressive on radar as well. All systems Go. Look for light to moderate snowfall with this second system. Some spots from NJ into NYC/L.I. could get brief periods of moderate to heavy snow and convective activity between 4:00 PM and 9:00 PM this evening.

I'll update more this afternoon. Temps will drop quickly into the 20's later this afternoon and this evening This is when we'll see the forecasted accumulating snow throughout the Delaware Valley. Most will see 2" to 4" from this second system, but more along the South/Central NJ Coast and NE into NE NJ and NYC Areas. These areas will see a general 3" to 6" of snow, with a few isolated spots seeing 7" near the central NJ Coast.

Ruggie

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