Friday, February 13, 2009

Colder but Dry This Weekend. Watching A Storm For The Middle Of Next Week. Snow ???

Sunday: 4:00 PM Update
2/15/09

I'm offically calling off the Mid-week storm !
No big snow chances with this storm for The Delaware Valley !

Some of my ideas over the past few days, aren't going to work out on this event, so "NO" SECS/MECS for the M/A and good part of New England is in my forecast for Wed into Thursday. This storm will take the high road and northerly track as the 50/50 is not there or did my thoughts on the retrograding c/o low out west work out as I thought they might by this time.

S0 this will prevent a more southerly track and any coastal development off the M/A coast, as I forecasted.This event will produce mostly rain here in the Delaware Valley and M/A States. Some mixed precip is possible at the onset but will be brief. Some Rain and snowshowers are possible on Thursday with CAA behind the storm and passage of a Strong cold front.

I'll have a more detailed forecast on Tuesday with this storm.
Now let's move on. It's weather and I'll do my best to get the next one correct.

Take Care
Ruggie
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Friday AM: 2/13/09
Discussion:

After our unseasonably warm week, a return to winter starts this weekend with colder temps. Near normal cold settles in this weekend, and continues into next week. A weak storm system will pass to our south on Valentine's Day and have limited moisture as it crosses the mountains. Cloud cover will increase on Saturday as this system approaches the region. I expect nothing more than a few rain and snow showers, for areas south of PHL. This will be during Saturday evening. Temperatures will be in the lower 40's for highs both Saturday and Sunday and Low's in the 20's. Sunday should be a nice day with partly to mostly Sunny skies.

As we head into next week, things get more interesting for a potential big storm, on Wednesday and Thursday. I mentioned this in my previous mid range call, for a possible Miller B Style, SECS/MECS for parts of the M/A States and into New England. This continues to look like a real threat, and could bring the Delaware Valley a decent snow event later Wednesday into Thursday.

The exact track of this storm is still questionable, along with the transfer of energy to the M/A coast. It's still too early to know exactly how much snow we'll get, and how this storm affects our area. In most cases with these Miller B style transfers, the Delaware Valley can do fairly well with some accumulating snow. Areas to our North in New England, usually do the best, as these storms strengthen, and move northeast up the coast.

The location of this transfer, and intensification along the coast, are the key factors in how we make out here in the Delaware Valley. If the storm transfers further south near the Delmarva or the VA coast, We'll have the best chance for a SECS. If the storm transfers in a location further north near DE, NJ, or Long Island, our chances decrease for significant snowfall. Rapid intensification along the coast is also very important.

The computer Model guidance over the past few days has been all over the place with this storm for next week. For those who read my posts at Eastern Weather Forum, you know exactly my thoughts and take with this system. I'm still on for a SECS/MECS in a Miller B style setup. The best chances for snow continue to be for the Northern M/A States, and into parts of New England. For the I-95 Corridor cities, this would be for the DCA/BWI areas and points North. At this time: PHL/NYC/ & BOS, look to be the best locations for a bigger snow event, than areas further south. The interior sections of the Northern M/A States: Including MD/PA and into much of New England will likely be the winners on this one !

As things become more clear over the next couple of days, I'll give a more in depth update with this storm, and also give my thoughts for potential snow amounts. This will likely be on Monday, with a preliminary call on this storm. Until then, enjoy your weekend.

For those of you that are more interested: Here a great article on what's considered a "Miller A" and "Miller B" storm. A great read from James Miller himself.
http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0469/3/2/pdf/i1520-0469-3-2-31.pdf

Take Care,
Ruggie

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