Saturday, February 7, 2009

My Mid-Range Call: Feb 14th - 28th A Colder & Stormy Pattern For The M/A and NE. Winter Returns !

Discussion: Saturday 2/7/2009
For: The Delaware Valley/ Mid-Atlantic & NE.
Mid-Range Call: Feb 14th - 28th.

Before I get started with my Mid-Range Call, let me say for those folks who enjoy Milder weather, You'll really like this upcoming week. Overall look for Above normal temperatures with a one week thaw. For The Del.Valley and Northern M/A States, temps will be mainly in the Upper 40's to near 60. The warmest day looks to be on Wednesday followed by some Rain for Thursday. After this potent storm passes to our NW later this week, the big changes begin as a strong cold front moves through on Thursday PM. This is the start of a colder, and more stormy pattern around the 13th & 14th (Next Weekend).

February 14th through 22nd:
A Colder and Snowy period for the M/A and NE.

During this time frame I expect a colder and very stormy period for the M/A States and NE. We start out with a weak split flow and more suppressed pattern. But, a developing NEG NAO, and 50/50 Low will become more established, and also become the main players as we progress into this week. This will help supply the cold air and eventually develop a trough in the east.

The first system will effect the Northern M/A States with a snow threat on the 14th and 15th. A Storm system and energy will be ejected eastward from a trough in the SW States. The flow will become zonal and flattened from the Southern Rockies and eastward to the M/A Coast. This will allow this storm to track further south, across the Tennessee Valley to near the VA coast next weekend. Colder air will be in place, thanks to a developing 50/50 low and the Northern branch close by, keeping the southern branch suppressed. (No Ridging or SE Ridge expected)

With all this being said, many parts of the M/A States, including the I-95 Corridor from DCA to PHL, will have a good chance for some snow with this first storm. It's too early to say how much, but I do think accumulating snow is likely. This will be the first of several storms during this time frame.

A more significant and widespread snow threat comes between February 17th- 19th . This will include much of the M/A States, and parts of Southern New England. The GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will be opened for business, as a continued on slot of storms, are ejected east from the SW trough, and southern Branch. Plenty of moisture will feed into these storms as move eastward from the Southern Rockies and approach the M/A Coast.

A Classic Miller A storm is possible, but a Southern style Miller B type setup is most likely to develop over the lower M/A near VA.

I expect 2 or 3 snow events during this time frame. Once again the biggest snow threat comes between the 17th and 19th, with a possible SECS/MECS. I'll also mention the Interior SE States (North Carolina) will be game for some snow as well.

February 23rd through 28th: (Closing out the month)
Continued Cold with more Clipper type systems.

During this time I expect a continued cold and active pattern in the east. The Northern branch and Eastern trough will become more dominant. Clipper type systems and shots of cold air with some snow will be the rule for the Northern M/A and Northeast.

My Call: Feb 14th - 28th
For the M/A States and The Northeast.

Overall I expect Near Normal temps to close out the month. Most areas of the M/A and Northeast will finish -1 to -3 (Below normal) during the 2nd half period.

I'm forecasting "Above Normal Snowfall" in New England, and "Much Above Normal Snowfall" over the M/A States.

Enjoy It !

Take Care,


Anonymous said...



Hi Jenny,
Yeah I know it's much info to absorb. On Thursday or early Friday, I'll make a call on the First system for Saturday into Saturday night. At this time it looks like a 1" to 3" event is possible, with SJ being in the best spot.

Next weeks big mahaffa, is still looking good.Plenty of time to watch the possible Big one, towards the middle/later part of next week. More to come later.


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