Thursday, February 16, 2012

My Preliminary Thoughts & Call For The Delaware Valley and Central M/A ! Snow On The Way For Later Sunday Into Sunday Night !

Issued: Thursday Feb 16, 2012 @ 6:00 PM
My preliminary Call
For The Delaware Valley & Central M/A Regions.
Minor/Moderate Snow Event: Sunday into Sunday Night.

I've been tracking this potential storm for much of the week, and it's now time to get into some details, and submit my preliminary forecast and thoughts for the Delaware Valley and Some Central M/A areas. Let me begin by saying, a minor to moderate snow event is looking likely, for Later Sunday into Sunday Night. At this time, areas from near PHL in SE PA, and points south into Southern NJ and DE, have the best shot at a minor/moderate snow event.

This storm will take a more southerly track, starting near the the Northern Gulf on Saturday night, then to the NC Coast by Sunday, and finally move NE, and off the M/A Coast during Sunday Night. With this storm track and high pressure building in from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region, this is a nice setup for a Coastal Storm and fresh supply of cold air to support snow for later Sunday into Sunday Night.

The Delaware Valley Region.

It appears the heaviest precipitation will setup from Central/Northern VA, to Eastern MD and then east into Southern NJ and DE. Initially our precip will likely start as some light Rain or a mix of rain and snow later Sunday morning, then as colder air begins to work in from the west and our storm intensifies near the NC coast, all precip will change to wet snow by later Sunday afternoon.

I expect this snow to become moderate at times during Sunday evening, before tapering off to flurries after midnight. A general 2"-4" of snow accumulation can be expected, with accumulating snow mainly falling during Sunday evening hours across the Delaware Valley region. Temps will be mainly in the mid to upper 30's later Sunday afternoon and drop to the upper 20's and lower 30's during the evening hours. This will be a wet snow.

NE MD, Extreme SE PA, Interior Southern NJ, and Northern/Central DE, have the best chance at this 2"-4" event. Areas further north will likely miss out on this storm and only a C-2" can be expected for the Lehigh Valley into Northern NJ.

The Central M/A Regions.

For Parts of Western and Northern VA into MD, these areas could be looking at a general 3"-6" with this storm, this includes Near DCA and BWI. The higher elevations and mountains of NW and Northern VA, could be looking at 6"+ amounts !

I'll have my final call on this storm with a snowfall map on Saturday ! Stay tuned, as I may have some changes/adjustments to this call, but at this point I'm pretty confident with this preliminary call. If the storm track should change, these amount could be adjusted.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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