Saturday Morning Update
8:30 AM ... 10-27-12
My Call for Delaware Valley Region.
Some better news and minor adjustments to my call from yesterday, which is now reflected in my write-up below !
The storm will be moving faster than previously forecasted so the duration of strongest winds now 12 hours to perhaps up to 16 Hours, but that's still a long time of 45 to 60 MPH and Higher gusts. So I still thinks Some trees will be coming down and power outages likely. Winds will be mainly out of the NE and North, then shift south and southwest as the center crosses later Monday night or early Tuesday morning.
I've trimmed back rainfall to 4" to 8" which I had 6"-12", still alot of rainfall !
Wind field from center now 100-200 miles which is still very large and should cover the entire Delaware Valley region.
Expected landfall between Southern DE to Central NJ coast later Monday night or very early Tuesday morning, and then moves Northwest into Central PA then North.
Strongest winds and most intense part of this storm occurs Later Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, then gradually settles down Tuesday afternoon and evening. Expect sustained winds of 45 to 60 MPH and higher gusts for the entire Delaware Valley region. At the NJ coast 50-70 MPH and gusts to 75 or 80 MPH can be expected.
Ruggie
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I'm sorry for the delay on this update, but I've been very busy preparing today and tracking the storm. Big decisions are being made on my end to leave and go to SW VA near Lynchburg with some friends. Will likely be leaving tomorrow night.
Guys, this is a very dangerous and concerning storm, that We've never seen set-up in this area before. A Hurricane that becomes a hybrid storm offshore to our SE and E, then turns NW and W slamming into the DE or NJ coast. This system will be slow moving and massive, as very strong upper level energy, a cold air mass, along with intense Dynamics with negatively tilted trough, will only enhance the storm as it approaches (Like the Perfect storm in the early 1990's but that didn't make landfall, this one will).
This is what we call a capture and full phase, but this time with a Hurricane moving NW and W towards the coast and making a landfall. This massive storm will be a slow mover, producing Strong Tropical Storm Force winds and near Hurricane force at times, for extended hours along with flooding rains of 4"-8".
The most intense part of the storm looks to be Monday night into much of Tuesday with sustained winds of 45-60 MPH and gusts to 75 inland and 50-70 MPH and gusts to 80 MPH along the DE and NJ coastline. So we can expect, 12 to 16 hours of this pounding wind with an intense wind field that will extend 100-200 miles from the center. A continuous pounding due to the storms slow movement will cause extensive damage.
Many trees, large branches and powerlines will likely come down in many areas and power could be lost for several days to even a week or two in some areas. Coastal and river Flooding could be record or near record breaking levels. I urge all to prepare for the worse now, and if you live in a mobile home leave and go to a safer area or better structured home if you should plan to ride this one out.
I will try to update sometime tomorrow with any changes if needed, but this is my thinking and call for now. This includes all of the Delaware Valley region, Eastern MD and even the NYC area.
God Bless and be safe !
Ruggie
If you are second guessing my call and concern. Please see NWS package below, issued at 6:00 PM this evening,
I agree 100% with the NWS Mt.Holly on this storm, please read
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf
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