Friday, November 2, 2012

A Coastal Storm / Nor'easter Threat For M/A and NE For The Middle Of Next Week !

Issued: 8:00 AM
Friday: 11-2-12
Discussion: Coastal Storm Threat For Middle Of Next Week ... M/A and NE !

I'm keeping a very close eye on another coastal storm threat for the middle of next week. This is not good news for folks who have been battered by Sandy along the M/A and NE coast earlier this week. We are stuck in a blocking pattern/Negative NAO, which promotes coastal storm development and colder weather here in the M/A and Northeast, during the Fall and Winter months.

All indications are now favorable for a coastal storm to develop along the SE coast on Tuesday, and then move this storm northward and up the coast during Wednesday and Thursday. This storm will likely strengthen into a strong coastal storm / Nor'easter, as it tracks just off the M/A coast on Wednesday then to the New England coast by Thursday.

Another potent trough, packed with mid and upper level energy, will move into the M/A and NE during the early to middle part of next week. With continued blocking to our north over Greenland and the North Atlantic (A NEG NAO) this will allow the incoming strong trough to amplify and become negatively tilted. At the surface, a storm will likely develop along the SE coast on Tuesday as this trough digs. This storm will then be directed NNE and just off the M/A coast on Wednesday as it strengthens.

Some models and trends, including the EURO, are now suggesting a strong 990 to 995 mb Low, just off the NJ coast by Wednesday evening. Unfortunately, this storm strength is getting into Nor'easter status, which would produce Gale force winds out of the NE and North, along with some moderate to heavy rain, along the M/A and NE coast for Tuesday night into Wednesday night. This is not what coastal residents need right now after being battered by Sandy. In addition another shot of cold air drills into the M/A and NE and interior sections of the Northern M/A and Interior New England could see some accumulating snowfall with this storm for Wednesday into Thursday, as it moves Northeast and off the New England coast by Thursday.

I'll continue to monitor and update on this storm in the coming days, but as of now the trends and indications are suggesting more big problems with possible coastal flooding and gale force winds along the M/A and SE New England coastal areas as we head into the middle of next week. This will be nothing like, or can be compared to Sandy, but with sand dunes and protective barriers now gone, any coastal storms or Nor'easters in the coming months, could cause additional problems to coastal areas that were affected by Hurricane Sandy.

For DE/NJ residents and into NYC and L.I. NY , the most intense part of this storm would likely be Wednesday into Wednesday night. Stay tuned for more details and updates, as we approach this time frame.

Additional discussion on this potential storm can be found at the Horizon weather forum ! Link below
http://horizonweather.freeforums.org/nor-easter-threat-for-m-a-and-ne-for-next-wed-thur-t677.html

For those who use FB, I now have a new page : Ruggie Weather Page, the direct link is below.
https://www.facebook.com/#!/RuggieWeather

Take Care,
Ruggie

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