Nor'easter threat update Issued:
Sunday 11-03-12 at 10:00 AM.
Discussion and Forecast::
For The Delaware Valley Region and NJ Coast.
Good morning folks ! As discussed in my previous writeup on Friday, I'm tracking a storm for Wednesday and Thursday of this upcoming week. It now appears a Coastal Storm / Nor'easter is likely, and will effect our region with some moderate to heavy rainfall of 1"-2" with isolated 3" amounts possible. Strong winds out of the North and Northeast direction of 20 to 35 Mph and gusts to near 40 Mph can be expected for Wednesday into Thursday for the Delaware Valley region. Temperature during this event will be quite cold, as Highs both days hold in the low to mid 40's, and lows in the low to mid 30's.
There's even a chance the rain could mix with and change to a touch of snow later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, especially North and West of PHL, with little or no accumulation. Now for parts of NE PA, The Pocono's, and NW NJ, these areas could see some accumulating snow with this event. My best estimate is potentially 2"-5" especially in the higher elevations.
Along the NJ coast, expect some additional beach erosion and some minor to moderate tidal flooding. The exact track of this Nor'easter is very critical ! Some models are still in disagreement with both the strength and exact track of this coastal storm.
If the storm hugs the coast within 100 miles and is stronger, then more problems for the NJ coast. The better scenario would be 100 to 250 miles offshore and weaker, which would have less effects, and allow for the strongest winds to be more out of a northerly direction.
As of today I'm favoring a track 100 to 150 miles, off the NJ coast, so I'm forecasting winds out of the NE and North at 25 to 40 Mph along the coast with some gusts to 55 Mph possible for Wednesday into Thursday morning. Expect rainfall amounts of 1"-2" and temps in the mid to upper 40's during the day and lows 35-40 at night.
Please be aware this Nor'easter WILL NOT compare to Sandy's fury, but as mentioned, with the sand dunes and protective barriers, now gone in many areas, any strong winds out of the East and NE, will likely cause additional beach erosion and some tidal flooding.
I will make my final call on this storm later Monday or Tuesday morning !
On another note, I'm now working on my 2012-2013 Winter Forecast and will likely issue my winter call this Friday Nov 9th.