Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Tuesday Morning update on Potential Nor'easter ! Final call this afternoon with possible big changes to this storm, which could include more of a Snow Threat from PHL And Points East Into NJ and NYC !

Tuesday morning update for Delaware Valley region.

The 00z EURO joins the GFS and NAM and takes a big shift east and is also weaker with the system. This is now becoming more of a possible accumulating snow event for NJ/east of I-95 and into SE New England vs a powerful Nor'easter and all rain event. Interesting changes occurring now, that's for sure.

00z breakdown of overall trends =

1. All models shift the storm east and are about 200-350 miles off the NJ coast vs 100 miles from previous runs, with a big shift and trend further offshore with this storm.

2. The storm is much weaker

3. A much colder profile with less precipitation and wind, most action east of PHL mainly as mixed rain and snow to all snow at times.

4. NAM/GFS/EURO now showing accumulating snow possible mainly for NJ or east of I-95 cor to the coast and into NYC and SE New England. A big snow event for SE New England.

I'll wait for the 12z runs today and have my final call out this afternoon or evening, could see big changes and surprises vs the big Nor'easter threat that goes to more of a snow event for Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning for near PHL east into much of NJ and NYC.

Based on what I'm seeing and the latest trends, my best estimate is that near PHL/ Northern DE and into much of SJ, we could see a Coating to 2" of wet snow mainly Wed night, while further north into central NJ maybe 1"-3", not my call but a potential of accumulations. My Final call will be later today or this evening as models continue to waffle with track and intensity, which is very important to the outcome of this storm. Very tricky forecasting on this puppy !

Take Care,

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